日本-欧盟EPA对中国、日本、欧盟的影响研究——基于GTAP-Dyn的一般均衡分析  

Study on Japan-EU EPA's Effect on China,Japan and the EU: The General Equilibrium Analysis based on GTAP-Dyn

作　　者：黄凌云[1] 王丽华[1] 刘姝[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院 [2]重庆工业职业技术学院管理学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2015年第1期102-111,129,共10页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"全球价值链‘低端锁定’困境下中国企业海外投资策略及路径研究"(项目编号:14BGJ042);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目"中国技术溢出的门槛作用机制与政策研究"(项目编号:CDJSK100061);"FDI技术溢出门槛效应的制度研究"(项目编号:CDJXS12020022)

摘　　要：欧盟和日本市场分别是中国第一大和第五大出口市场,日本-欧盟建立经济伙伴关系(EPA)将对中国经济造成影响。文章在计算日本和欧盟产业竞争力的基础上,将产业分为日本优势产业、欧盟优势产业、日本和欧盟都有一定竞争优势且优势相近产业以及日本和欧盟都无优势产业4类,并利用动态GTAP模型(GTAP-Dyn)模拟了日本-欧盟EPA所带来的影响。研究结果显示:日本和欧盟的宏观经济大多受到正面影响,且日本获益更多,而中国的福利水平、GDP、贸易顺差和贸易条件等宏观变量都将受到负面冲击;中国与日本、欧盟的双边贸易则出现小幅下降,且中国对日欧出口遭受的负面冲击比进口大。The EU is China's first largest export market and Japan is the fifth. These two powers' Economic Partnership( EPA) will inevitably impact on Chinese economy. On the basis of calculation of the competitiveness,we divide industries of Japan and the EU into four categories,and use dynamic GTAP model( GTAP-Dyn) to simulate the effects of the Japan-EU EPA. Our results are basically consistent with the interpretation of the theory about the effect of the construction of Free Trade Zone on the participating countries and non participating countries. Firstly,Japanese and the EU's macro-economies are mostly affected by positive impact,and Japan benefits more,while the welfare,GDP,terms of trade and other macroeconomic variables of China suffer from a negative impact. Secondly,the reduction and elimination of trade barriers expands the trade scale between Japan and the EU in most industries especially the Japanese advantageous industries and the EU's advantageous industries,but the bilateral trade of Japan,the EU and China appears to decline slightly,and the negative impact on Chinese exports to Japan and the EU is greater than Chinese imports. Based on the results,we argues that China should optimize the export structure,develop bilateral and multilateral trade partnership actively,expand overseas market,and develop the domestic demand at the same time.

关 键 词：GTAP-Dyn EPA产业竞争力 双边贸易 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]