年均气温空间插值方法的比较分析-以北京为例  

Comparative analysis on the spatial interpolation methods for average annual air temperature by taking Beijing as example

作　　者：谢军飞[1] 李薇[1] 

机构地区：[1]园林绿地生态功能评价与调控技术北京市重点实验室,北京市园林科学研究所,北京100102

出　　处：《生态科学》2013年第6期752-756,共5页Ecological Science

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金(8102017);国家科技支撑计划(2013BAJ02B01)

摘　　要：为确定较优的北京年均气温空间插值方法,采用普通克立格法(OK)和分层非均质区域均值无偏最优估算理论(MSN)方法,分别对2010年北京143个气象站的年均气温进行了空间插值和检验。分析结果表明:(1)根据由OK插值方法得到的年均气温分布图,可以发现北京2010年的年均气温在4.91-14.32℃之间变动,其平均值为10.02℃,均值标准偏差为1.9℃;且因受山地影响,低温区主要出现在西部的太行山脉、北部的燕山山脉,高温区集中于东南部平原,尤其在北京城近郊区,总体上呈现由南向北递减、由低海拔向高海拔递减的趋势;(2)采用MSN空间均值估计模型,估计出北京2010年均气温约为10.36℃,均值标准偏差约为1.2℃,若以标准偏差值的大小作为判断标准,则MSN法优于OK法,但目前MSN空间均值估计模型还无法生成空间分布图,不利于判断空间的气温分布趋势。The observed data of average annual air temperature from 143 meteorological stations in 2010 in Beijing are compared and analyzed by Ordinary Kriging（OK） and Mean of Surface with Non-homogeneity（MSN）. The results showed that the average annual air temperature varied between 4.91 and 14.32 ℃, the average annual air temperature was 10.02 ℃, and the mean standard deviation was 1.9 ℃. The lower temperature region was in the Taihang Mountains and Yanshan Mountains, and the high temperature region was concentrated in the southeast plain in the suburbs of Beijing. The map indicated a decreasing trend of average annual air temperature from south to north, and from low altitude to high altitude. As estimated by MSN, the average annual air temperature of Beijing in 2010 was 10.36 ℃, and mean standard deviation was 1.2 ℃. According to the standard deviation value, MSN is better than Ordinary Kriging, but MSN is difficult to estimate the spatial temperature distribution trend because MSN can not generate a spatial distribution map.

关 键 词：气温 空间插值 普通克立格法 MSN方法 北京 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]