动态系统响应曲线修正方法在乌溪沟流域的应用  

The Application of the Method of Dynamic System Response Curve in Wuxigou Basin

作　　者：刘可新[1] 包为民[2,1] 赖善证 李佳佳[1] 阙家骏 杨姗姗[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210098

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2014年第12期24-26,共3页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279057;41371048);国家自然科学基金重大项目(51190091);国家重点实验室专项基金(2009585412)

摘　　要：乌溪沟流域位于湖北西南部,是洈水流域的组成部分,对区域防洪起着重要作用。动态系统响应曲线(Dynamic System Response Curve,DSRC)修正方法,基于系统和微分角度,是一种新的模型误差修正方法,将该方法应用于乌溪沟流域,对该流域14场历史洪水进行了模拟修正,并应用二阶AR模型作为对比,结果证明,DSRC修正方法在不损失预见期的情况下能够有效的提高洪水预报的精度,并且修正效果整体上优于传统的二阶AR模型。Wuxigou Basin,one of the important part of Weishui Basin,is located in the southwest of Hubei Province,playing a key role in regional flood control.The method of dynamic system response curve（DSRC）,is a new model error correction method based on system and differentiation.The method is applied in Wuxigou Basin in this paper with 14 historical floods chosen as the test samples.Meantime,AR（2）model is also used for comparison.It turns out that the method of dynamic system response curve is able to improve the accuracy of flood forecasting effectively.And it also shows that the method is better than AR（2）model on the whole.

关 键 词：洪水预报 系统响应曲线 误差修正 新安江模型 乌溪沟流域 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]