资料插补对河流水质变化趋势影响分析——以台州市区河流为例  

An Analysis of Data Interpolation's Effect on Rivers' Water Quality Change Trend:Taking Rivers in Taizhou for Example

作　　者：刘柏君[1] 管仪庆[1] 刘光裕 杜璇璇 田玺泽 张丹蓉[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [2]浙江省水文局,杭州310009 [3]云南省水利水电勘测设计研究院,昆明650021

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2014年第12期35-39,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：教育部"111"引智计划(B08048);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室自主研究课题(2009585312)

摘　　要：季节性Kendall检验模型被广泛应用于河流水质变化趋势分析,资料完整与否对模型的计算至关重要。以台州市区河流为例,通过MIKE11水质模拟值插补现有实测数据组成2006-2011年72个月长系列完整资料,利用季节性Kendall检验模型,分析资料插补前后对河流水质变化趋势影响。结果显示:水质资料缺失导致流量调节无法实现,不能判别污染物浓度-河流流量间相关性和污染物来源,难以推求污染物年均变化值。同时表明,MIKE11水质模型与季节性Kendall检验模型结合可解决上述问题,并能使用于资料缺失地区河流水质变化趋势研究。Model of seasonal Kendall test（MSKT）is widely used to analyze the water quality change trend（RWQCT）in rivers.This paper selects rivers in Taizhou City as an example,acquires simulated values to interpolate existing experimental data to make up 72 months complete long series data from 2006 to 2011through MIKE11,and then utilize MSKT to analyze the effect of data interpolation on RWQCT.The results show that the loss of water quality data led to the failure in flow adjustment,distinguishing interdependency between rivers＇ flow-pollutants＇ concentration and source of pollutants,it was also difficult to ascertain pollutions＇ concentration annual change values.Meanwhile,MSKT combined with MIKE11 water quality model is an appropriate way to solve abovementioned problems,which can be put into practice in the incomplete data areas to analyze RWQCT.

关 键 词：资料插补 季节性Kendall检验模型 MIKE11水动力-水质模型 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV131