云南省滑坡泥石流与强降水的相关性和多时间尺度特征研究  

Correlation and Multi-timescale Characteristics of Strong Precipitations and Landslide Debris Flows in Yunnan Province

作　　者：万石云[1] 赵宁坤[1] 段玮[2] 

机构地区：[1]云南省气象台,云南昆明650034 [2]云南省气象科学研究所,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《灾害学》2015年第1期45-50,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41205067)

摘　　要：以云南省1961-2011年的滑坡泥石流灾害和逐日降水观测数据为基础,采用相关分析和小波变换分析方法,研究了云南滑坡泥石流与强降水变化的相关性特征和多时间尺度特征。结论为:近51年来云南滑坡泥石流活动频次呈现出逐步增长的趋势,云南滑坡泥石流与强降水的变化具有显著的相关关系,与暴雨的相关性最高,其次为大暴雨和大雨。云南滑坡泥石流与强降水变化表现出十分明显的多时间尺度变化特征。滑坡泥石流与强降水的变化均存在有6年的特征时间尺度变化,在6年的特征时间尺度上,云南滑坡泥石流的变化一般是相同或滞后于强降水的变化。Based on the data of landslide debris flow disasters and daily precipitation from 1 961 to 201 1 ,cor-relation and multi-timescale characteristics of the strong precipitation and the landslide debris flows in Yunnan are investigated with correlation analysis and wavelet transform analysis methods.The results show that landslide and debris flow activity frequency showing a gradual increasing trend in recent 51 years,the variations of the strong pre-cipitation and landslide debris flows in Yunnan has significant correlation：the highest correlation with the rainstorm and secondly for heavy rainstorm and heavy rain.The variations of the strong precipitation and the landslide debris flow in Yunnan obviously display multi-timescale features.There were characteristic timescale changes in 6 years of the variation for the strong precipitation and the landslide debris flow,the characteristic time scale of 6 years,the changes of landslide and debris flow in Yunnan is generally identical to the change or lag behind the strong precipi-tation.

关 键 词：滑坡 泥石流 强降水 相关系数 多时间尺度 云南省 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学] X4[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]