人民币实际有效汇率对中国贸易收支的影响——基于中国-东盟六国的实证研究  

Influences of Real Effective Exchange Rate of RMB on China's Trade Balance——An Empirical Study on China-Six Countries of ASEAN

作　　者：汤磊[1] 沙文兵[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《长春大学学报》2015年第1期1-4,共4页Journal of Changchun University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11CJL035)

摘　　要：基于1994—2012年人民币汇率和中国-东盟六国贸易的年度数据,采用协整方法和Granger因果检验考察了人民币实际有效汇率对中国贸易收支的影响。实证结果表明,中国-东盟六国贸易收支的汇率弹性为-0.46,不满足马歇尔-勒纳条件;人民币实际有效汇率不是中国-东盟六国贸易收支的Granger原因,现阶段人民币汇率调整并不会对中国-东盟六国的贸易收支产生显著影响,相反,国内外实际收入尤其是国外实际收入的上升对双方贸易收支的影响较大。This paper, based on the exchange rate of RMB from 1994 to 2012 and annual data of trade between China and six countries of ASEAN, adopts cointegration method and Granger Causality Test to examine the influences of real effective exchange rate of RMB on China’s trade balance. The results show that the elasticity of exchange rate of trade balance between China and six countries of ASEAN is -0. 46, not satisfying Marshall-Lerner Condition;The real effective exchange rate of RMB is not the Granger cause of trade balance between China and six countries of ASEAN. The adjustment of the exchange rate of RMB at this stage will not have a significant impact on China-Six Countries of ASEAN trade balance. Instead, domestic and foreign real income, especially the growth of foreign real in-come will have a greater impact on bilateral trade balance.

关 键 词：人民币实际有效汇率 中国-东盟六国 贸易收支 协整检验 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]