通勤时空弹性对居民通勤出发时间决策的影响——以北京上地—清河地区为例  

Modelling the Choice of Departure Time for Commuting Trip Chains Incorporating Space-Time Flexibility Variables:Evidence from the Shangdi-Qinghe Area of Beijing

作　　者：陈梓烽[1] 柴彦威[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2014年第12期65-76,共12页Urban Development Studies

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAJ05B00)子课题(2012BAJ05B04)

摘　　要：城市居民交通出行的出发时间决策是城市交通出行行为研究的核心内容之一。尽管已有研究揭示,活动安排的制约性(或弹性)可能影响居民通勤出发时间(特别是"错峰出行")的决策,但多数研究仅考虑工作时间的制约(或弹性),较少从整个通勤链出发分析通勤前后、通勤过程中各项活动的弹性对居民通勤出发时间以及"错峰出行"决策的影响。在已有研究基础上,立足于中国现实背景,基于2012年在北京市郊区实施的调查数据,尝试揭示通勤前后、通勤过程中各项活动的时空弹性对居民通勤出发时间决策的影响,以证实弹性的活动安排是否有利于居民"错峰"出行。研究结论主要有:(1)居民的通勤出发时刻集中在高峰时段;(2)个人社会经济属性、城市空间形态、通勤的时空特征等因素对居民早、晚通勤的出发时间决策产生了影响;(3)弹性的活动安排对早通勤出发时间决策产生了显著影响,对晚通勤出发时间决策的影响不显著。研究结论将为我国背景的城市时间规划提供实证案例的支撑。The choice of departure time of daily trips is one of the highlights of travel behavior research.Despite conclusions from existing studies that the constrain or flexibility of activity schedule may affect the choice of departure time of commuting trips,most studies focus on the flexibility of working time and ignore the potential impact of the constrains of other activities on departure time.This research makes an attempt to add to the existing literature by modelling the choice of departure time for commuting trip chains incorporating space-time flexibility variables in the Chinese context based on data collected in a suburban mega-community of Beijing in the year of 2012.The research explores the relationship between the flexibility of the entire trip chains on the departure time of commuting trips and tries to verify if flexible schedules contribute to the rush-hour avoidance.It is found through a descriptive analysis that most of commuting trip chains start during rush hours.The results of multi-nominal logit models show that the choice of departure time of commuting trips is impacted by socio-demographic factors,urban form,commuting distance and duration,mode of transport,as well as the flexibility of commuting trips.All else being equal,residents will significantly avoid rush hours in the morning commuting trips given flexible schedules,which doesn＇ t happen in the case of evening commuting trips.The results of the research provide important implications for urban time planning in the Chinese context.

关 键 词：出行行为研究 通勤 出发时间决策 时空弹性 城市时间政策 

分 类 号：K901[历史地理—人文地理学]