1996—2013年中国入境旅游市场时空演变研究:结构效应与空间效应  

Spatio-temporal Evolution of Chinese Inbound Tourism Market during 1996—2013: Structure Effect and Space Effect

作　　者：张瑞英[1,2] 席建超[1] 葛全胜[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]天津农学院,天津300384

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2014年第6期80-85,共6页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40971299);国家科技支撑计划项目(2010BAK68B04)

摘　　要：在世界旅游大发展和全球一体化过程中,中国各区域的旅游吸引力、政策、营销等的不同引起入境旅游结构发生变化,从而引起中国入境旅游的时空格局不断发生变化。将中国分为八大旅游区域,采用偏移份额模型分析世界各大洲入境客源市场在八大旅游区域的结构效应和空间效应,试图阐述在中国旅游进程加快过程中入境旅游变迁的内在规律。结果表明:1 1996—2010年来自各大洲的入境游客量在全国八大旅游区板块都表现为不断增长的趋势。2011—2013年入境游客量下滑,究其原因与中国旅游发展的内外部因素都有关,但总之中国入境旅游发展由不成熟及不稳定变得不断成熟起来。2总体来说,1996—2013年全国各区域入境旅游客源结构得到改善,但是北部沿海地区、南部沿海地区入境客源结构有恶化趋势,大西南地区自2005年以来入境旅游结构较差,大西北地区结构不稳定。3 1996年以来,区域性增长速度差别越来越小。另外,中国各区域旅游成熟度和开放性在加强,各旅游区域的地理聚集性越来越差,中国八大旅游区域的各大洲入境旅游从偏好于某一区域向全国分散旅游趋势转化,分散旅游成为趋势。In the process of world tourism development and global integration , Chinese inbound tourism situa-tion and pattern have great changes because different regions have different tourism attractions , policies and market-ing measures .The study divides China into eight tourism regions , and analyzes structure effect and space effect of inbound tourism in the eight tourism regions by shift-share model .The study tries to find the spatio-temporal char-acteristics of inbound tourism when Chinese tourism develops rapidly .The results show that：①Inbound tourist a-mounts of eight tourism regions have a growing trend during 1996—2010 and a downward trend during 2011—2013 .In recent years , the decrease of inbound tourist number has been associated with internal and external factors of China tourism development .In general, Chinese inbound tourism is becoming mature .② The inbound tourist structures of eight tourism regions have improved in light of general trends during 1996—2010.In details, inbound tourist structure of the northern coastal region and the southern coastal region has a tendency to worsen , and in-bound tourist structure of the southwest region has been poor since 2005 , and inbound tourist structure of the north-west region is instability .③ Since 1996 , regional difference of tourist growth rate has been less and less .With maturation and openness in strengthening , geographical aggregation of inbound tourist is getting worse , and it’ s be-coming a trend for modern people to travel dispersedly .

关 键 词：入境旅游 时空演变 结构效应 空间效应 中国 

分 类 号：K921[历史地理—人文地理学]