基于模糊理论的地区电网在线供电风险分析方法研究  

Method study of on-line risk analysis for district grid

作　　者：罗雅迪[1] 李静[1] 陈利杰[1] 李强[1] 贾育培[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国电力科学研究院,北京100192

出　　处：《电工电能新技术》2014年第12期60-64,70,共6页Advanced Technology of Electrical Engineering and Energy

摘　　要：为了更加准确地衡量地区电网的运行风险,提出了地区电网在线供电风险分析计算方法;风险指标的计算中采用基于元件运行状态及模糊理论建立的室外元件的加权故障概率模型,使风险指标能够反映外界环境因素的影响。该加权故障概率模型主要考虑雷电、风速、线路覆冰和气温的影响,选择各自适用的隶属度函数,综合考虑各影响因素得到修正系数,对由历史统计数据得出的架空线路强迫停运率进行修正。基于该算法对WSCC9节点系统进行仿真分析,验证了该算法的有效性。In order to more accurately measure the running risks of the district power grid,this paper presents a method of on-line risk analysis for district grid.The calculation of risk indicators uses the weighted fault probability model of the overhead line which is based on equipment operating status and fuzzy theory,and the risk indicators can reflect the influence of environmental factors.In this model,the proper membership function is adopted to describe the influence of lightning,wind speed,line ice and temperature,and the outage rate of overhead line,derived from historical statistics,is amended.By making full use of operating experience of dispatchers,the fuzzy membership function boundary conditions are determined.Therefore,the problem of lacking historical statistics is solved.Based on this method,the power supply risk analysis software can be developed to calculate the online risk indicators of district grid,and the simulation results for WSCC9 system verify the effectiveness of the method.

关 键 词：地区电网 故障概率模型 风险分析 模糊理论 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TM732