基于标志性事件研究的我国在“三海”问题上所处形势分析  

Analysis of the Situation China Faces in the " Three-sea" Issues Based on the Study of Landmark Events

作　　者：韦伟[1] 单洁[1] 刘卓然[1] 罗亚拉[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子工程学院,合肥230037

出　　处：《情报杂志》2015年第1期8-13,7,共7页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"信息化条件下美国‘重返亚洲’战略及我应对策略研究"(编号:13BGJ003)阶段性研究成果之一

摘　　要：建立力量分析模型,利用历史法梳理出冷战结束后到本文研究的截止日期内,在"三海"问题上,利益侵害方/争议方和干涉方对华立场的标志性事件。以专家赋分法和时间序列法进行处理,绘出趋势线,反映我国在"三海"问题上所处形势。在钓鱼岛、台湾和南海问题上,趋势线分别呈"先平后陡""总体平稳"和"总体陡峭"状态,考虑到历史及政策的延续性,未来在钓鱼岛和南海问题上,我国所面临的压力形势可能呈加剧状态,在台湾问题上所处的形势保持相对稳定状态的可能性较大。By building strength-analysis model and using historical method, this study tries to tease out the landmark events reflecting the U. S. and related countries or areas＇ adopted stance on China in the＂Three-sea＂ issues since the end of the Cold War till the deadline of this study. Applying expert rating method and time-series method, trend lines are drawn accordingly, which reflects the situation that Chi-na faces in the ＂Three-sea＂ issues. The trend lines are ＂smooth first, then steep＂＂overall smooth＂and＂overall steep＂in the Diaoyu Islands issue, the Taiwan Question, and the South China Sea issue separately. Considering the continuity of history and policy, the future pressure situation that China faces in the Diaoyu Islands issue and the South China Sea issue will probably worsen;while in the Taiwan is-sue will probably stay the same.

关 键 词：标志性事件 力量分析模型 时间序列法 “三海”问题 半定量化研究 

分 类 号：E0-053[军事—军事理论]