物流业发展对山东省经济增长作用的实证研究  

Empirical Research on the Role of Logistics Industrial Development Played on the Economic Growth in Shandong Province

作　　者：王文铭[1] 殷凤朝[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东青岛266580

出　　处：《上海市经济管理干部学院学报》2015年第1期49-56,共8页Journal of Shanghai Economic Management College

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(14CX06032B);山东省社科基金项目(13CJJZ04)

摘　　要：基于Logistic模型与计量经济学的建模方法,建立了一个区域物流能力与经济增长之间相互作用的分析框架。首先基于协整理论及格兰杰检验对物流业的发展与山东省经济增长的关系进行定性分析,明确了物流业的发展与经济增长之间存在互动关系;然后应用Logistic模型定量分析二者之间的数量关系,研究表明物流业对经济增长的促进作用正处于递增阶段;物流发展成为经济的新增长点,提高现代物流业的发展水平,对于区域经济发展的意义重大。Based on Logistic model and econometric methods, an analytical framework that allows the interac- tion between the regional logistics capability and the economic growth has been set up. First, the relationships between the development of logistics industry and economic growth in Shandong province has been studied by the Co-integration Theory and Granger Causality Test, the qualitative analysis shows that there are bidirection- al feedback effect between them. Then, this article uses Logistic model to analyze interaction relation by the way of quantitative analysis, the research shows that its promoting effect on economic growth in the phase of increasing. And relevant conclusions and suggestions have been put forward. Key words： The logistics industry Economic growth Co-integration theory Granger test Logistic model

关 键 词：物流业 经济增长 协整理论 格兰杰因果关系检验 Logimc模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]