改进Verhulst模型在饱和负荷预测中的应用  

Application of Improved Verhulst Model in Saturation Load Forecasting

作　　者：尚芳屹[1] 杨宗麟[2] 程浩忠[1] 辛洁晴[1] 顾洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学电力传输与功率变换控制教育部重点实验室,上海200240 [2]华东电网有限公司,上海200000

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2015年第1期64-68,共5页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

摘　　要：为实现对宏观负荷的饱和时间点、饱和规模的预测,提出了一种基于改进Verhulst模型的饱和负荷预测方法。针对饱和负荷预测时间跨度长、负荷规模增长呈现"S"型的特点,将等维新息递补技术引入灰色Verhulst模型,使预测结果能够更科学合理地反映用电需求的发展规律。采用残差修正的思想,构造Verhulst残差修正模型,实现对用电需求的分析与预测。最后,通过实例分析说明该方法的有效性。In order to forecasting load saturation time and scale, an improved Verhulst model is presented in this pa- per. For power demand growth in the size of an S-type characteristics and a long time span saturation load forecasting, equal dimensional information is introduced into Verhulst model based on the ＂inertia principle＂ of load development, making forecasting results reasonably reflect the development law of power demand. According to the idea of residual error correction, a new improved Verhulst model is constructed to analysis the power demand. At last, the reliability is validated by an actual example.

关 键 词：饱和负荷预测 饱和指标集 改进Verhulst模型 等维新息递补 残差修正 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TM734