三江平原湿地面积减少的驱动因素分析  

Driving Factors of Shrinkage of Wetlands in the Sanjing Plain

作　　者：魏强[1,2] 杨丽花[3] 刘永[1] 佟连军[1] 吕宪国[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院湿地生态与环境重点实验室,中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,吉林长春130102 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]石家庄经济学院商学院,河北石家庄050031

出　　处：《湿地科学》2014年第6期766-771,共6页Wetland Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2009CB421103)资助

摘　　要：以1986-2010年三江平原湿地面积和6个潜在驱动因素的13个指标数据为基础数据,应用Tobit模型,分析各驱动因素对湿地面积的影响。研究结果表明,导致湿地面积减少的是人口总量增加、城市化率增大、农村居民人均纯收入提高、耕地面积增加和居民地面积增加。Driving factors analysis that cause ecosystem change is essential to the design of environmental interventions which could enhance the positive responses and minimize the negative impacts.The Wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain has witnessed a severe shrinkage during the past 60 years.As a consequence,some ecological and environmental issues become increasingly apparent such as the loss of biodiversity,the frequent floods,and the degradation of regulating functions,etc.The shrinkage of the wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain is affected by many driving factors,so recognizing the complicated relationship between them is very insignificant.In this article,the evolution process of the wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain was reviewed;and some qualitative analyses were conducted by the Tobit model to study the impact effects of 6 indicators of 13 possible driving factors on the shrinkage of the wetlands.The results showed that 5 indicators（the total population,the urbanization rate,the rural per capita net income,the cultivated area and the residential area） from 6 possible driving factors（population,economy and land use driving factors） had significant effects on the area of the wetlands.The increase of number of total population,higher urbanization rate,increase of rural per capita net income,increase of the cultivated area and residential area led to the shrinkage of the wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain.

关 键 词：湿地面积 萎缩 驱动因素 TOBIT模型 三江平原 

分 类 号：P962[天文地球—自然地理学] P941.78