Attribution of Maize Yield Increase in China to Climate Change and Technological Advancement Between 1980 and 2010  

作　　者：郭建平 赵俊芳 邬定荣 穆佳 徐延红 

机构地区：[1]Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences [2]School of Natural Resources,University of Missouri,203 ABNR Building,Columbia,Missouri 65201,USA

出　　处：《Journal of Meteorological Research》2014年第6期1168-1181,共14页气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31371530);China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201106020);China Meteorological Administration Special Climate Change Research Fund(CCSF201346)

摘　　要：Crop yields are affected by climate change and technological advancement.Objectively and quantitatively evaluating the attribution of crop yield change to climate change and technological advancement will ensure sustainable development of agriculture under climate change.In this study,daily climate variables obtained from 553 meteorological stations in China for the period 1961-2010,detailed observations of maize from 653 agricultural meteorological stations for the period 1981-2010,and results using an Agro-Ecological Zones（AEZ） model,are used to explore the attribution of maize（Zea mays L.） yield change to climate change and technological advancement.In the AEZ model,the climatic potential productivity is examined through three step-by-step levels：photosynthetic potential productivity,photosynthetic thermal potential productivity,and climatic potential productivity.The relative impacts of different climate variables on climatic potential productivity of maize from 1961 to 2010 in China are then evaluated.Combined with the observations of maize,the contributions of climate change and technological advancement to maize yield from 1981 to 2010 in China are separated.The results show that,from 1961 to 2010,climate change had a significant adverse impact on the climatic potential productivity of maize in China.Decreased radiation and increased temperature were the main factors leading to the decrease of climatic potential productivity.However,changes in precipitation had only a small effect.The maize yields of the 14 main planting provinces in China increased obviously over the past 30 years,which was opposite to the decreasing trends of climatic potential productivity.This suggests that technological advancement has offset the negative effects of climate change on maize yield.Technological advancement contributed to maize yield increases by 99.6%-141.6%,while climate change contribution was from-41.4%to 0.4%.In particular,the actual maize yields in Shandong,Henan,Jilin,and Inner Mongolia increased by 98.4Crop yields are affected by climate change and technological advancement.Objectively and quantitatively evaluating the attribution of crop yield change to climate change and technological advancement will ensure sustainable development of agriculture under climate change.In this study,daily climate variables obtained from 553 meteorological stations in China for the period 1961-2010,detailed observations of maize from 653 agricultural meteorological stations for the period 1981-2010,and results using an Agro-Ecological Zones（AEZ） model,are used to explore the attribution of maize（Zea mays L.） yield change to climate change and technological advancement.In the AEZ model,the climatic potential productivity is examined through three step-by-step levels：photosynthetic potential productivity,photosynthetic thermal potential productivity,and climatic potential productivity.The relative impacts of different climate variables on climatic potential productivity of maize from 1961 to 2010 in China are then evaluated.Combined with the observations of maize,the contributions of climate change and technological advancement to maize yield from 1981 to 2010 in China are separated.The results show that,from 1961 to 2010,climate change had a significant adverse impact on the climatic potential productivity of maize in China.Decreased radiation and increased temperature were the main factors leading to the decrease of climatic potential productivity.However,changes in precipitation had only a small effect.The maize yields of the 14 main planting provinces in China increased obviously over the past 30 years,which was opposite to the decreasing trends of climatic potential productivity.This suggests that technological advancement has offset the negative effects of climate change on maize yield.Technological advancement contributed to maize yield increases by 99.6%-141.6%,while climate change contribution was from-41.4%to 0.4%.In particular,the actual maize yields in Shandong,Henan,Jilin,and Inner Mongolia increased by 98.4

关 键 词：climate change technological advancement maize yield relative contribution 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]