2014年国内外食糖市场形势分析及展望  

Sugar Markets at Home and Abroad in 2014 and Their Prospects

作　　者：刘晓雪[1,2] 宋杰[1] 张宸[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学经济学院,北京100048 [2]北京工商大学中国食品安全研究中心,北京100048

出　　处：《农业展望》2014年第11期20-25,共6页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业部;财政部现代农业(甘蔗)产业技术体系建设专项资金;北京哲学社会科学首都流通业基地;2014价格波动创新团队(19005453003);国际农业体系国际农业研究体系"糖料市场;贸易及产业政策研究"

摘　　要：2013/14榨季已结束,中国累计生产食糖1 331.8万t,销售食糖1 140.4万t。2014年中国食糖总体产量增加,但主产区日益集中;销糖量和销糖率均同比下降;配额外食糖纳入自动进口许可管理;厄尔尼诺气候影响贯穿全年。展望后市,短期内,过剩库存仍使国内外糖价承压,随着库存压力缓解,国际糖市供给或由剩转缺,2014/15榨季国内也将进入减产周期,长期存在上涨动能。后期需继续关注巴西和印度等食糖主产国的天气变化、巴西食糖用蔗比例和印度进出口补贴政策变化、汇率变化以及宏观经济动态等焦点因素。2013/14 crushing season has ended, China＇s total production of sugar was 13.318 million tons, and the sales was 11.404 million tons. In 2014, the overall production of sugar increased, but the main producing areas were concentrated significantly, while the amount of sugar sales and the rate of production＆amp;marketing both fell, at the same time, non-quota sugar was incorporated into automatic import licensing, and the effect of El Nino climate would last the whole year. Looking ahead, as surplus inventory, domestic and international sugar prices will remain under pressure in the short term, but the surplus situation of international sugar market may turn to insufficient with the stock pressure relieving, and China＇s sugar market will also come to the decreasing production cycle in 2014/15 crushing season, which all lead sugar price a upward momentum in the long term. Sustained attention should be paid for weather changes of main producing countries, such as Brazil and Indian, proportion of sugar cane for Brazilian sugar and import and export subsidy policies in India, changes in exchange rates and macro-economic dynamics in the future.

关 键 词：食糖价格 产量 供需 销糖率 进出口 市场形势 展望 

分 类 号：F426.82[经济管理—产业经济] F768.2