基于学习效应的产品扩散建模与仿真研究  

Modeling and Simulation of Product Diffusion Based on Learning Effect

作　　者：马开平[1] 余子祥 李静[1] 张冬青[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学工学院,南京210031 [2]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2014年第11期2592-2599,共8页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71101072);江苏省高校青蓝工程青年骨干教师项目;江苏省自然科学基金(BK2011652);南京农业大学中央高校基本科研业务费人文社会科学基金(SK2014011)

摘　　要：巴斯模型是产品扩散领域有最具代表性的成就。由于其建立在一系列假设条件基础上,大大限制了模型的应用。将巴斯模型进行拓展使其适用于竞争产品,获得了关于产品利润的解析形式的表达。考虑了单位变动成本的学习效应,据此分析了其对产品利润的影响。将描述产品扩散过程的传统数学模型抽象为系统动力学模型,用以分析产品采用过程中的动态扩散特征,通过运用Vensim软件对模型进行仿真,定性化地说明了所建立模型的正确性。通过对模型中变量的灵敏度分析探讨各参数如何影响模型中的变量。变量分析与模型仿真的结果进一步揭示了影响产品扩散的诸因素间的互动关系与系统的结构特性,为产品开发与扩散的政策模拟提供了依据。Bass model is one of the most representative works in the area of product diffusion. It has some limitations due to its strong assumptions. The application of Bass model was expanded to fit for some competitive products, and an analytical expression for the profits of competitive products was obtained. In this model the learning effect of variable cost was taken into account, and its influence to product profit was analyzed. The mathematical models representing the process of product diffusion were transformed into system dynamics models. Therefore the dynamic performance during the products diffusion process was analyzed. Using Vensim software to simulate the models, the correctness of them was testified qualitatively. The sensitivity analysis was performed to see how the typical parameters would affect the variables in the model. After analyzing the variables and simulating the models, the mutual relationships between the factors affecting product diffusion were displayed. The system properties were explored, which provides a foundation to make policies of product development and diffusion.

关 键 词：系统动力学 产品扩散 仿真 建模 学习效应 

分 类 号：F421[经济管理—产业经济]