天津市对外贸易与就业、产业结构、居民收入关系的实证研究  

The Relationship Between Foreign Trade, Employment, Industrial Structure and Residents' Income of Tianjin

作　　者：田贵贤[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学,北京100875

出　　处：《保定学院学报》2015年第1期13-18,共6页Journal of Baoding University

摘　　要：利用VAR模型分析天津市对外贸易与就业、产业结构变动和收入之间的关系。研究结果表明:出口导向率与就业、第三产业结构变动存在显著的负相关关系;与第二产业结构变动呈正相关关系;与收入水平呈正相关关系。进口渗透率与就业、产业结构变动及收入之间的关系不显著。而且居民收入的提高是因为对外贸易引起就业质量的提高而不是就业量的增加。因此,天津市应充分利用和优化对外贸易政策,实现地区产业结构的升级和调整以及居民收入的提高。Using VAR model, this paper analyzed the relationship between Tianjin foreign trade and employment, the change of industrial structure and income. Research results showed that export-oriented rate has a significantly negative correlation with employment and the changes of tertiary sector respectively; the changes of second industry were positively correlated; and positively correlated with income levels. Import permeability and employment, industrial structure change has no significant relationship. And people ’s income increase caused by foreign trade to promote the quality of employment rather than the increase of employment. Therefore, Tianjin should make full use of and optimize the foreign trade policy, realize the implementation of regional industrial structure upgrading and adjustment and the improvement of people’s income.

关 键 词：对外贸易 就业 产业结构 居民收入 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]