基于贝叶斯理论的地下洞室群时变施工进度风险预测方法  

Method for Time-varying Schedule Risk Forecasting of Underground Structure Group Based on Bayesian Theory

作　　者：张社荣[1] 杜成波[1] 撒文奇[1] 王超[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2014年第5期1131-1137,共7页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家创新研究群体科学基金(51021004);国家财政部施工新技术研究与开发立项项目(2012);水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室开放基金资助

摘　　要：地下洞室群施工过程中施工效率的时变效应是影响施工进度风险预测的一个重要因素,然而目前的进度预测方法并不能合理考虑。提出基于贝叶斯理论的地下洞室群时变施工进度风险预测方法,将工序单位工作量施工时间的均值和方差视为时变随机量,利用现场施工时间样本信息,不断修正和改进各开工工序单位工作量施工时间的先验信息,以获得其在现场时变施工效率影响下的后验估计,以此实现各开工工序剩余工作时间预测,并利用柔性网络计划仿真方法实现工程时变施工进度风险预测。最后通过工程实例,对比实时仿真进度预测方法阐述了所提方法在地下洞室群施工进度风险预测中的应用过程,验证了该方法的可行性及优势。Time-varying effect of working efficiency during the actual construction of underground structure group is one of important factors that affect the work of schedule risk forecasting, but the present methods of schedule forecasting have not properly taken into account it. A method for time-varying schedule risk forecasting of underground structure group based on Bayesian theory was proposed, which regarded the mean and variance of the working time of unit work load as time-varying random variables. The prior information of the working time of unit work load was ceaselessly modified and improved by utilizing the sample information of the working time on the job site, so that the posterior estimate of it under the influence of actual time-varying working efficiency was obtained. On that basis forecasting of the remaining working time of each procedure under construction was realized and so was the time-varying schedule risk forecasting by means of the flexible network planning simulation method. At last, compared with the schedule forecasting method of real-time simulation, the application of the method addressed by the authors in the schedule risk forecasting of underground structure group was described through an engineering case and the feasibility and advantage of the method was verified.

关 键 词：地下洞室群 时变施工进度风险 贝叶斯 实时仿真 时变施工效率 

分 类 号：TV554[水利工程—水利水电工程]