区域产业结构调整路径与经济增长——基于一个内生增长模型的偏离度及资本缺口分析  

The Adjustment Path of Region Industrial Structure and Economic Growth——The Analysis of Deviation and Capital Cap Based on an Endogenous Growth Model

作　　者：王涛[1] 石丹[1] 安锦[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]三亚学院,三亚572022 [2]北京交通大学,北京100044 [3]内蒙古财经大学,呼和浩特010010

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2015年第1期78-90,共13页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：海南省社科联规划项目"海南省产业结构调整路径与居民收入可持续增长研究"(项目编号:HNSK(GJ)14-25);三亚市哲学社会科学重点资助课题"旅游城市居民收入可持续增长研究--以三亚市为例"(项目编号:SYSK14-02);国家社科基金一般项目"西部地区承接产业转移与促进就业增长互动机制研究"(项目编号:14BJL097)

摘　　要：通过建立一个由两部门经济构成的增长模型,给出经济内生增长所需满足的条件,并得出衡量各产业偏离度以及产业结构偏离度的一个相对合理指标。然后基于偏离度以及资本缺口的实证分析表明,区域产业结构调整方向、路径选择以及促进产业结构调整的储蓄率变化并没有统一模式,但根据各省市自治区产业结构偏离度以及资本缺口情况,关于结构调整方面基本可分为九大类,储蓄率分为下降和上升两类。这对我国区域产业结构调整及优化具有一定的政策参考价值,有利于明确产业结构调整方向,优化资源配置,改善经济结构,实现经济的可持续增长。By establishing an endogenous growth model which consists of two sectors, the conditions required by endogenous growth and a relatively reasonable index judging the industries deviation and industrial structure deviation are given. Then the empirical analysis based on the deviation and capital cap shows there are no unified pattern on region industry structure adjustment directions, alternative paths and changes of saving rate promoting the structure adjustment. But according to the current situation of industrial structure deviation and capital cap, the adjustment pattern can be divided into nine and two categories on structure adjustment and saving rate respectively to all provinces and autonomous regions. The results are expected to benfit the current region industrial structure adjustment and optimization, and help to confirm the direction of industrial structure adjustment, optimize the allocation of resources, improve the economic structure and achieve sustainable economic growth in China.

关 键 词：内生增长 平衡增长路径 偏离度 资本缺口 产业结构调整 

分 类 号：F202[经济管理—国民经济] F213.5