重点片区道路应急避震疏散评价理论模型  

A theoretical model for roads' emergency earthquake evacuating in key area

作　　者：刘晓然[1,2] 苏经宇[1] 王威[1,2] 马东辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学抗震减灾研究所,北京100124 [2]北京工业大学建筑工程学院,北京100124

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2015年第1期205-215,共11页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家十二五科技支撑计划项目(2011BAJ08B05);国家自然科学基金(51208017);北京工业大学博士科研启动基金(012000543114515)

摘　　要：根据对重点片区应急避震疏散影响因素的分析,结合系统动力学的基本思想和原理的研究,从灾害环境、道路空间、人员特性三个方面分析了地震疏散过程中的动态反馈性,建立了道路系统动力学疏散的因果模型和流量模型.结合城市抗震防灾规划标准中对紧急避难场所、疏散道路及疏散时间的要求,就地震灾害发生时重点人群密集片区的紧急疏散过程中的道路疏散能力进行了动态模拟,并根据模拟结果对重点人员密集片区的规划改建提出了相关的建议,为城市抗震防灾工作提供参考.According to the influencing factors analysis of roads＇ emergency earthquake evacuating in key area, and study on basic ideas and principles of system dynamics, the dynamic feedback of earth- quake evacuation was analyzed from three aspects that disaster environment, road space, and personnel characteristics, then the road evacuation causal model and flow model based on system dynamics were established. Complied with the standard for urban planning on earthquake resistance and hazardous pre- vention for emergency shelter, evacuation roads and evacuation time, dynamic simulation on the road evacuation capabilities of crowded emergency evacuation area during the earthquake was conducted, re- lated recommendations were given for key personnel-intensive area planning from the simulation results, to provide a reference for urban earthquake relief work.

关 键 词：重点片区 地震灾害 紧急疏散 群集流动 因果反馈 动态模拟 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]