中国乐透型彩票销量的影响因素:基于面板数据模型  

Research on the Determinants of Lotto Sales in China:Based on Panel Data Mode

作　　者：李坤[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学,北京100875

出　　处：《首都体育学院学报》2015年第1期8-11,22,共5页Journal of Capital University of Physical Education and Sports

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(11YJAZH044)

摘　　要：基于面板数据计量方法,考察2001-2013年中国31个省份乐透型彩票销量的影响因素。结果发现,乐透型彩票各省人均销量与各省的人均GDP成正相关的关系,弹性为1.94,说明在当前中国,乐透型彩票富有弹性,即属于正常商品中的奢侈品。人均GDP增长至12.21万元后,乐透型彩票人均销量将下降,但目前中国各省份人均GDP水平远低于这一水平,说明乐透型彩票仍有较大发展空间。各省乐透型彩票人均销量与当地教育水平和城镇化率正相关,但与各地区男女比例和失业率关系不显著,表明乐透型彩票购买者集中于城镇地区中高收入阶层。前期销量对于人均彩票销量的弹性系数为0.46,小于1,表明彩票的销量会随前期销量的增加而增加,但其影响会逐渐减弱。This paper studies on the determinants of Lotto sales based on Panel Model by analyzing the data from 2001 to 2013 in 31 provinces in China. The results show that there is a positive relationship between per-capita GDP and Lotto sales with an elasticity of 1.94, suggesting that Lotto in China is elastic, namely,luxuries in normal goods at present. The per-eapita Lotto sales will decrease after per-capita GDP reaching 122. 1 thousand RMB. However, the current perkcapita GDP is far lower than this, which means that Lotto has much space to develop in China. In addition, gender ratio and unemployment rate has no significant influence on Lotto sales while local education and urbanization rate have positive coefficients, suggesting that Lotto players are mainly among the high income level in urban areas. The coefficient of previous sales is 0.46, less than 1, which says that previous sales have a positive but decreasing impact on Lotto sales.

关 键 词：彩票 乐透型彩票 销量 影响因素 面板数据模型 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]