基于地统计条件模拟的土壤重金属污染范围预测方法研究  

Estimating the area of heavy metal contaminated soil using geostatistical conditional simulation

作　　者：谢云峰[1] 杜平[1] 曹云者[1] 柳晓娟[1] 陈同斌[2] 杜晓明[1] 李发生[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京100012 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所环境修复中心,北京100101

出　　处：《环境污染与防治》2015年第1期1-6,共6页Environmental Pollution & Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.41301229);环保公益性行业科研专项(No.201409047)

摘　　要：常用的空间插值模型在土壤污染范围预测时存在平滑效应,导致高值区被平滑和低值区被高估,在划定污染区范围时也往往忽视了插值结果存在的偏差。以某土壤重金属污染区域为例,利用地统计条件模拟方法预测土壤中Cu、Pb的空间分布,在多次模拟结果的基础上估算污染概率,基于概率阈值确定污染区范围。研究结果表明,地统计条件模拟方法获得的土壤Cu、Pb模拟结果统计特征与调查样点的统计特征基本一致,且空间分布格局也相似。基于污染概率的污染区范围确定方法可以定量评估污染区范围预测的不确定性,对提高土壤污染治理效果与科学制定环境管理决策具有重要意义。The smooth effects of widely used spatial interpolation methods will lead to underestimate the local high concentration area and to overestimate the local low concentration area.Moreover,the uncertainty of the contaminated areas produced by spatial interpolation methods was ignored.In this study,geostatistical conditional simulation was applied to map the spatial distribution of soil pollutants.The results indicated that geostatistical conditional simulation reproduced the statistical characteristics and variogram of soil investigation samples.The series of conditional simulation results were combined to calculate the probability of exceeding specified soil environmental standards.The probability map were used to delineate the area where more potential to contaminations and to explicitly assessment of uncertainty.The pollution probability based method can be very helpful in the soil pollution control and environmental management decision making.

关 键 词：土壤 重金属 条件模拟 序贯高斯模拟 污染概率 

分 类 号：X53[环境科学与工程—环境工程]