风力机机头风速与输出功率相关性分析及应用  

Correlation Analysis between Wind Speed of Wind Turbine and Output Power and Its Application

作　　者：邓力[1] 李龙[1] 韩星星[1] 熊妍[1] 付士凤 夏晨宇 

机构地区：[1]河海大学能源与电气学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2015年第1期166-168,153,共4页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：鉴于用机头风速代替入流风速来预测输出功率的误差较大,因此以某实际风电场为例,计算机头风速和入流风速之间的相关系数,将机头风速拟合成关于入流风速的线性式,并对比由机头风速预测所得的输出功率曲线与模型功率曲线。结果表明,当机头风速与入流风速的线性关系式的一次项系数与1偏差不大时,使用机头风速预测的输出功率较可靠。但对于风场里的后排风机,必须先使用Jensen尾流模型求出后排风机的入流风速,再预测输出功率。将此方法应用于实际风场中预测的超短期输出功率与实测功率基本吻合,进而证实了此方法在风电场输出功率预测中的可行性。It is usually inaccurate that most of wind farms use the measured wind speed instead of inflow speed to predict output power of wind turbine.The paper takes a certain actual wind farm as an example to compute the correlation coefficient between measured wind speed and inflow wind speed.And then it fits the measured wind speed on the inflow speed with a linear relation.Finally,power curve predicted by the measured wind speed and power curve of the model are compared.The results show that when the monomial coefficient of linear relation is close to 1,prediction output power using the measured wind is reliable.For the wind turbines that in the back row of wind farm,the inflow wind speed must be computed by the wake model of Jensen firstly,then the output power could be predicted.Application of the method to ultra-short term wind output power forecasting in a actual wind farm,the predicted output power is basically consistent with the measured wind power,which confirms the method＇s feasibility for output power prediction in wind farm.

关 键 词：输出功率预测 机头风速 入流风速 风功率曲线 

分 类 号：TK89[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程]