GRAPES模式中不同陆面方案对新疆一次强降水事件的模拟  

Simulation of a Heavy Rainfall Case in Xinjiang Using the GRAPES Model with Different Land Surface Schemes

作　　者：琚陈相 李淑娟[1] 于晓晶[1] 李曼[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2014年第6期16-22,共7页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：新疆气象局科学技术研究项目:天山准静止锋锋面三维结构的数值模拟(Q201402);新疆快速更新循环同化分析数值预报系统技术研究(ZD201404)共同资助

摘　　要：用中尺度数值预报模式GRAPES_Meso V3.3.2.5版本以及NCEP的GFS资料,分别选用模式中不同陆面参数化方案(SLAB、LSM、NOAH)对2013年9月14—17日新疆强降水过程进行数值模拟试验,结果表明:(1)陆面方案对主要雨带的落区和大致走向影响并不大,但对降水强度的预报还是敏感的,SLAB陆面方案预报的降水场与实况场最相似;(2)不同陆面方案在选取的强降水区域预报的降水量均较实况偏小,比较各试验后发现NOAH方案较其他方案的预报结果显得更加稳定与合理。The mesoscale numerical prediction model GRAEPS Meso V3.3.2.5 version and NationalCenters for Environmental Prediction（NCEP）GFS data are used to simulate a heavy rainfall eventin Xinjiang during 14 -17 September, 2013, and the precipitation sensitivity to land surfaceparameterization schemes is tested. The results show that：（1）The forecast precipitation patternsfrom GRAPES model generally agree with the observations, and the sensitivity of the precipitationforecast to the land surface physical process is distinct. The precipitation field forecasted by theSLAB scheme is the most similar to the observation field.（2）The precipitation forecasted bydifferent land surface schemes in selected heavy rainfall area is smaller than the observation.Comparing all results of precipitation forecast with different land surface parameterization schemes,NOAH scheme gives more reasonable and stable forecast effect than the others.

关 键 词：GRAPES_Meso模式 暴雨预报 陆面方案 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]