基于MAS技术的城市养老机构布局决策支持  

Urban senior service facility layout decision support based on MAS

作　　者：颜秉秋[1,2] 高晓路[1] 马妍[1] 袁海红[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第7期973-982,共10页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41171138)

摘　　要：在快速城镇化、人口及社会经济转型的宏观背景下,城市空间组织问题具有典型的动态性、开放性和复杂性特征,使传统的自上而下的静态空间规划方法难以满足科学决策的需求。以探索空间决策支持模拟系统的建立过程为目标,该文以北京城市养老服务设施布局为例,基于多智能体的模拟技术,通过辨识养老服务需求和供给的关键主体及分析主体的决策行为规则和相互作用关系,构建了"城市养老设施布局的决策支持模拟模型"。在主体辨识、行为规则、相互作用关系输入的基础上构建了养老服务设施布局的评估指标,据此对不同政策情景的效果进行了比较,提出了政策调整和参数优化的方案。研究结果表明:若想实现养老机构的合理和高效配置,仅仅制定总量和总体比例的目标是不够的(如北京市制定的2020年达到9064的目标),需要进一步细化关键政策因子(如养老机构的收费、区位等),来优化空间布局。研究发现,对养老机构收费和空间区位的约束对老年人选择或入住机构的影响十分显著:收费2 000元以下养老机构占总机构数的比例为70%时资源配置效率和需求得到最好满足;80%的养老机构布局在六环以内的城区时养老机构的床位使用率最高,资源利用效率最好。以上工作拓展了多智能体模拟技术在城市空间规划决策支持方面的应用,为城市公共服务配置决策、城市空间模拟决策提供了良好的借鉴。Under the background of rapid urbanization and socio-economic transition in China,the spatial organization of cities is phenomenally featured by dynamic, openness and complexity, making the traditional static top-down approaches of spatial planning difficult to meet the needs of scientific decision-making.With the purpose of developing a useful spatial decision support simulation system,the distribution of urban senior service facilities was taken as an example,with a ＂senior service facility layout decision support model＂developed using the multi-agent simulation technology.The core agents in the supply and demand sides were specified and analyzed in term of their behavior rules,interactions,and relationships with the environment.Besides,the evaluation indicators for senior service facility layout were developed,whereby comparison of the effects of different policy scenarios were made, and then accordingly,suggestions for policy and optimization scheme were proposed.The results show that setting the total amount alone is far from enough to achieve rational and efficient allocation of senior service facilities.The key policy parameters such as price level and location should be detailed.The research found that the senior service charge is significant for elder people to choose a facility or stay home.In the case of Beijing,70% makes the best ratio for senior service facilities charging below 2000 RMB per month,and allocating 80% of the facilities within the sixth ring road of the city may optimize the utilization rate of resources and best satisfies the demands of people.The developed model of spatial decision support provides a good reference for the study of public service allocation.

关 键 词：城市模拟 养老机构 决策支持 空间布局 政策情景 多智能体模拟 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济] F062.6