中国苹果出口贸易潜力分析  

Trade Potential for China's Apple Export

作　　者：王淑漪[1] 梁丹辉[1] 李志强[1] 李婷婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部农业信息服务技术重点实验室/中国农业科学院智能化农业预警技术与系统重点开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《农业展望》2014年第10期57-61,66,共6页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAH20B04);中国农业科学院农业信息研究所公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(2014J018)

摘　　要：随着中国经济的增长,苹果贸易总量逐年增加,2004年起中国成为全球第一大苹果出口国。运用修正的引力模型,通过需求因素、供给因素与贸易阻力因素,对中国苹果在主要出口目的国或地区的贸易潜力进行分析研究。由于贸易潜力受人均收入影响很大,中国与以英、法两国为代表的许多发达国家有较大的贸易潜力。然而,由于受购买力不足影响,中国对其周边发展水平相对低下的国家,如哈萨克斯坦、尼泊尔等出现贸易过剩,其次,由于美国、加拿大两国的苹果生产量较大,中国对其出口也处于过剩状态。As China＆#39;s apple trade increasing with the economic growth, China has been the largest apple exporter in the world since 2004. The authors applied the modified gravity model to analyze the trade potential of China＆#39;s apple in main export countries and regions by analyzing the factors of supply, demand and trade resistance. In conclusion, the trade potential between China and some developed countries, such as Britain and France, is superior, strongly influenced by per capita income. Otherwise, because of insufficient purchasing power, the trade between China and her neighbors, whose developing level is relatively low, witnesses the surplus, including Kazakhstan and Nepal, etc.. Also, the apple productions in America and Canada are enough, so there is a trade surplus between China and the two countries.

关 键 词：中国 苹果 出口 贸易潜力 贸易引力模型 

分 类 号：F326.13[经济管理—产业经济] F752.62