城镇化对农产品消费的影响  

Influence of Urbanization on Agricultural Products Consumption

作　　者：李圣军 

机构地区：[1]吐鲁番地区开发性金融合作办公室,新疆吐鲁番838000

出　　处：《农业展望》2014年第10期62-66,共5页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：浙江省软科学项目(2013C35059)

摘　　要：结合"三个1亿人"问题,城镇化对农产品消费的影响主要有4个渠道,分别为农民工"市民化"、市民"再城镇化"、农民"非农化"和农民消费"城镇化"。综合4个影响渠道,预计到2020年,城镇化的推进将减少粮食口粮消费579.29万t,分别增加猪肉、牛肉、羊肉、蔬菜和瓜果消费148.8万t、28.3万t、6.9万t、595.4万t和446.47万t。但与2013年相比,因城镇化推进而增加的各种农产品消费量占总产量的比重不大,不会对粮食安全产生明显影响。Comb ined with the＆quot;three one hundred billion people＆quot;problem, the influence of urbanization on agricultural products consumption has four main channels, respectively migrant workers ＆quot;citizen＆quot;, citizen＆quot;re-urbanization＆quot;, farmers＆quot;non-agricultural＆quot; and farmers consumption ＆quot;urbanization＆quot;. Integrated the influence of four channels, the advancement of urbanization will make grain consumption reduce 5.792 9 million tons in 2020, and the increase of pork, beef, mutton, vegetable and fruit consumption will separately be 1.488 million, 283 000, 69 000, 5.954 million and 4.464 7 million tons. In 2020, due to the promotion of urbanization, the proportion of consumption increase of various agricultural products in total production will be small compared with 2013, which will not have significant impact on food security.

关 键 词：城镇化 市民化 非农化 农产品 消费 影响 

分 类 号：F299.21[经济管理—国民经济] F323.7