基于层次分析(AHP)的山东林火风险区划研究  

Shandong forest fire danger division research based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP)

作　　者：黄宝华[1,2,3,4] 张华[1] 孙治军[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所,烟台264003 [2]烟台市地理信息中心,烟台264003 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [4]中国农业大学(烟台),烟台264670

出　　处：《火灾科学》2014年第4期225-232,共8页Fire Safety Science

基　　金：烟台市科技发展计划项目:"基于MODIS数据火险预警研究"(2009163);"山东海岸带遥感灾害监测"(2013ZH084)

摘　　要：利用RS和GIS构建山东森林火险区划模型,模型采取4类指标:第一类是森林火灾发生和蔓延的气象条件,选用代表干湿状态的多年近地面平均气温和近地面空气比湿;第二类是森林燃烧物质基础,林火行为主体的森林植被类型和植被覆盖度;第三类是高程、坡度和坡向等森林火灾发生和蔓延的地形条件;第四类是距居民点距离、距道路距离和人口素质(农民纯收入指数)等火源条件。分析2001-2010年10年间各类指标因子与火点分布关系,利用层次分析法(AHP)确定火险因子权重构建了山东林火风险区划,用2011-2012年火烧迹地信息进行验证,其中火点落在大于或高于三级占到了95%以上。A forest fire danger division model in Shandong province was established using RS and GIS technique. Four types of indexes are considered in the model. The first is the weather conditions of forest fire occurrence and spread, including annual average temperature and annual average near surface specific humidity which can represent dry and wet states. The second is concerned with the combustibility of forest materials, including vegetation type and vegetation coverage. The third is the terrain conditions of forest fire occurrence and spread, including DEM, slope and aspect. The fourth is the fire source conditions including the distance from fire points to residence, road and per capita net income index of farmers. The relationship between various indexes and the fire point distribution during the years of 2001-2010 was analyzed. The analytic hierarchy process （AHP） was used to determine the fire danger factors weights, and then the forest fire danger division of Shandong province was developed. Fire scars information from 2011 to 2012 was used to validate the forest fire danger model, for which the fire points above the third level accounted for 95%.

关 键 词：遥感 地理信息系统 层次分析法 林火风险区划 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X954