基于SD和模糊综合评价的土地整治项目社会影响评价  

Social Impact Assessment of Land Consolidation Project Based on System Dynamics and Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation

作　　者：张庶[1] 金晓斌[1] 徐霄枭[2] 周寅康[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京210023 [2]深圳大学土木工程学院,广东深圳518060

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2014年第34期81-88,共8页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项"黄土高原台源区土地整治技术开发与示范"(201011016);教育部博士点基金"集成系统动力学与多智能体系统的土地利用规划动态仿真模型研究"(20120091110014)

摘　　要：利用系统动力学的因果回路图分析土地整治的社会影响,运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价方法评估土地整治典型项目的社会影响程度。通过典型案例分析,该项目社会影响成功度综合评价结果为"基本成功",其中"社会效率"成功度最高,"社会公平"次之,"可持续发展"成功度最低。运用系统动力学的理论对土地整治的社会影响的影响因素和传导途径进行解析,通过层次分析法和模糊综合评价法可对相关社会影响进行定量评估,研究成果可为土地整治项目的社会影响评价工作提供借鉴和参考。The purpose of this paper was to analyze social impact of land consolidation project with causal loop diagram in the system dynamics, and assess its level by means of AHP and fuzzy synthetic evaluation. Methods of system dynamics, AHP and fuzzy synthetic evaluation were employed in this paper. By taking the land consolidation project as an example, comprehensive evaluation of the results about the social impact of the project＇s success degree was ＇basic success＇, ＇social efficiency＇ of the project had the best success degree, and then was ＇social equity＇, and the last one was ＇the sustainable development of society＇. The influential factors and pathways of the social impact in the land consolidation were analyzed by using the theory of system dynamics; the related social impact through the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was assessed, and the research results could put forward recommendations for practical work about social impact assessment of land reclamation projects in the future.

关 键 词：土地整治 社会影响评价 系统动力学 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]