国家间领土争端缘何易于复发  

Why Is Territorial Dispute More Likely to Recur?

作　　者：吴志成[1,2] 陈一一[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学周恩来政府管理学院 [2]南开大学国家领土主权与海洋权益协同创新中心

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2015年第2期111-136,159-160,共26页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"新时期全球治理的理论创新研究"(项目编号:10JZDH047);国家领土主权与海洋权益协同创新中心项目的阶段性成果

摘　　要：领土问题是现代国家产生以来影响国家间关系与地区和平稳定的最重要因素,领土安全则攸关国家生死存亡。在既有的各种国家间争端和矛盾中,领土争端最常见、最易于复发且最有可能引发战争行为。作者在具体梳理和评析国内外相关研究文献的基础上,以综合性考察战争起因的"走向战争"理论模型为评估框架,总结了影响领土争端复发的主要因素,并提出了若干假设:政体开放度较高则争端复发率较低、具有军事冲突过往经验则争端复发率较高、冲突双方含有大国则争端复发率较低、双方相对实力差距大则争端复发率低、与外部国家存在联盟则争端复发率较高、经济合作水平高则争端复发率低。结合考克斯比例风险模型对这些假设进行检验后发现,与领土争端复发显著相关的因素主要包括外部联盟、军事冲突的过往经验、主要大国、争端协调方式、争端双方经济合作水平、争端双方实力对比和政体类型,其中,外部联盟、军事冲突的过往经验、争端协调方式三者对争端复发的影响最为明显。Since the emergence of modern states,territorial disputes have served as the cardinal factor in influencing interstate relations and regional stability.The territorial security concerns directly to the survival of state.In all kinds of disputes among states,territorial disputes are either the most common or most liable to recur and also catch highest probability to trigger a war.Why is territorial dispute more likely to recur? Based on literature review,the paper constructed an analytical framework from the model of steps-to-war.Through summarizing important factors which contribute to the recurrence of territorial disputes,corresponding hypotheses are raised as below;higher degree of regime openness contributes to lower probability of recurrence;past experience of militarized conflicts contributes to higher probability of recurrence;disputants which include major powers contribute to lower probability of recurrence;larger gap in power comparison contributes to lower probability of recurrence;alliance with other states contributes to higher probability of recurrence;higher level of economic cooperation contributes to lower probability of recurrence;different types of dispute mediation contribute to different probability of recurrence;different outcomes of previous dispute contribute to different probability of recurrence in the dispute to come.By the test of Cox Proportional Hazard model,there are seven factors which maintain obvious correlations to the recurrence of territorial dispute,and they are outside alliance,past experience of militarized conflict,major power,dispute mediation,economic cooperation between disputants,power comparison between disputants and regime type.Among these factors,outside alliance,past experience of militarized conflict,dispute mediation come to be the most influential factors to the probability of recurrence.

关 键 词：领土争端 反复爆发 走向战争模型 争端协调 

分 类 号：D815.3[政治法律—国际关系]