基于商机存在概率估测的赊销决策模型研究  

Decision-Making Model of Credit Sale Based on the Estimated Probability of Business Opportunity

作　　者：孙庆文[1] 刘欣[1] 栾晓慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北经贸大学工商管理学院

出　　处：《管理学报》2015年第2期284-290,共7页Chinese Journal of Management

基　　金：河北省社会科学发展研究课题资助项目(2014031950);河北省自然科学基金资助项目(G2013207004);河北经贸大学校内科研基金资助重点项目(2014KYZ03)

摘　　要：借鉴SMC模型思想,使用威布尔分布函数有效地拟合出赊销产品的客户寿命时间变化特点,动态估测出企业商机存在的概率,并运用相关的收益估测方法及决策规则,建立了赊销动态决策模型,估测出不同调研阶段不同商机类型的客户总收益,使企业能够针对不同类型的客户在有限的时间内做出最优的赊销决策。企业商机估测模型有效克服了原SMC模型通过指数函数及伽玛函数拟合客户寿命时间特点时存在的计算复杂程度高、适应性差等缺陷。This study made a good use of the Weibull function to effectively describe the character- istics of the customer life time changes for products sold on account and made a dynamic estimation on the probability of the existing business opportunities. In addition, it constructed the dynamic decision- making model by means of relevant revenue-estimating methods and decision-making rules, which helps enterprises make optimal decisions for different types of customers subject to limited times. The opportunity-estimating model effectively overcomes the defects such as high complexity of calculation and poor adaptability, when SMC model fits the life-time characteristics of the customers by exponen- tial function and Gamma function.

关 键 词：动态决策模型 赊销收益估测 商机 客户寿命时间 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学] F272.3