横断历史元分析的原理、方法及人口学应用  

Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis: Principles,Procedures and Applications in Demography

作　　者：侯佳伟[1] 辛自强[1] 黄四林[1] 张梅[1] 窦东徽[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学社会发展学院

出　　处：《人口研究》2015年第1期104-112,共9页Population Research

基　　金：中央财经大学社会调研与数据库建设项目;国家社科基金(项目号:14CRK011);北京青年英才计划(项目号:YETP0975);2012年度北京市优秀人才培养资助项目支持

摘　　要：横断历史元分析(cross-temporal meta-analysis)是新近发展起来的一种定量文献研究方法,它把多项相互独立、但具有共同目标的研究按照时间顺序加以连贯,进而考察研究变量随年代变化的趋势。横断历史元分析可以把海量调查数据背后隐藏的规律简洁明了地展现出来,还能够弥补缺乏跟踪调查的纵向研究的缺憾。更重要的是,它能够使得研究结论的因果关系更具说服力,减少不同研究结论之间的争议。此外,与问卷调查、访谈等方法相比较,它的成本相对较低,有效节省物力、人力和财力。在人口学领域推广应用横断历史元分析方法,有助于把不同时间发表的若干针对同一问题且方法相同的研究,置于宏观视野下进行系统梳理,从而归纳出人口发展的一般规律。Cross-temporal meta-analysis is a newly developed but extensively applied method of quantitative literature review. This approach sorts a series of previous studies which are independent with each other but refer to the same issues in a chronological order, thus the hidden changing patterns of target variables could be observed. This method has now been widely used in psychology, educational research, behavioral science, medicine, economical management and many other areas. The use of cross-temporal meta-analysis in demographic research may contribute to revealing general trends of Chinese population changes by analyzing the results of previous studies on the same topics and with the same methods. In this paper we introduce the basic concept of cross-temporal meta-analysis, and illustrate the methods and procedures involved with a case of fertility research. Problems such as measurement instruments, odd values and their solutions are summarized, and practical applications of cross-temporal meta-analysis in demographic research are discussed.

关 键 词：元分析 横断历史元分析 人口学 生育意愿 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学]