SRES A1B情景下中国区域21世纪最高、最低气温及日较差变化的模拟分析  

Analysis of Changes in the Maximum and Minimum Temperature and Diurnal Temperature Range from PRECIS Model under the SRES A1B Scenario for China

作　　者：刘昌波[1,2,3] 纪潇潇 许吟隆[2,1] 王明星[1] 张镭[1] 潘婕[2] 胡亚南[2] 佟金鹤[2] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室 [2]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所 [3]中国人民解放军95762部队

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2015年第1期89-96,共8页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑项目2013BAC09B0;中-英-瑞(士):中国适应气候变化(ACCC)项目

摘　　要：利用区域气候系统模式PRECIS（Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies）分析A1B情景下中国区域21世纪3个时段2011～2040年、2041～2070年、2071～2100年最高、最低气温及日较差相对于气候基准时段 （1961～1990年）的变化.结果表明：中国区域未来3个时段平均最高、最低气温呈逐渐增大趋势,日较差呈逐渐减小趋势;最高气温增幅分别为1.7、3.2、3.9 ℃,最低气温增幅分别为1.9、3.6、4.7 ℃,最低气温增幅与最高气温增幅相比可达1.1倍以上.未来最高、最低气温冬季增幅最大、春季最小,日较差则表现为冬季减小幅度最大、夏季减小不明显.最高、最低气温及日较差变化的空间分布显示,最高气温在东北地区升幅最大,在西北、黄土高原和四川盆地亦有较大幅度的上升,但在青藏高原北部和华南地区升幅较小;最低气温在西北地区升幅最大,在东北和青藏高原北部升幅较大,而四川盆地和华南地区升幅较小;日较差在中国北方地区普遍减小,在青藏高原北部减小最为明显,但在四川盆地与云贵高原东部地区日较差则呈增大趋势.The outputs of PRECIS （Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies） were used to analyze the changes in the maximum （Tmax） and minimum temperature （Tmin） and diurnal temperature range （DTR） during 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 relative to the baseline period （1961-1990） under the SRES A1B scenario for China. The results show a consistent increase in the Tmax and Tmin, annually and for the four seasons, during 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100; however, the DTR shows a consistent decrease. The annual warming amplitude （WA） of the Tmax and Tmin are 1.7, 3.2, and 3.9 and 1.9, 3.6, and 4.7 ℃, during 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, respectively, and the increase in the amplitude of the Tmin is more than 1.1 times that of the Tmax. The WA of the Tmax and Tmin are projected to be largest in winter and smallest in spring, and the decreasing amplitude of the DTR is projected to be largest in winter and smallest in summer. The spatial distribution of the change of the Tmax, Tmin, and DTR over China shows that the Tmax will have its largest WA in Northeast China, a large WA in Northwest China, the Loess Plateau, and the Sichuan Basin, but a small WA in the northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and South China. On the contrary, the Tmin will have its largest WA in Northwest China, a large WA in Northeast China and the Northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and a small WA in the Sichuan Basin and the eastern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. The DTR shows a decreased trend for northern China, especially in the northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, but an increase in the Sichuan Basin and the eastern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.

关 键 词：PRECIS模式 最高气温 最低气温 日较差 SRES A1B情景 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]