养殖规模化对中国生猪生产波动的稳定效应研究——基于省际面板数据的实证分析  

A Study of the Stabilizing Effect of Large-Scale Breeding on Pig Production Fluctuation in China: An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：周晶[1] 张科静[2] 丁士军[3] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]九江学院商学院,江西九江332005 [3]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《江西财经大学学报》2015年第1期84-94,共11页Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"‘土地换保障’背景下失地农户的生计重建:基于可持续生计框架的分析"(71173239);江西省教育科学"十二五"规划项目"人力资本视角下教育投资与家庭贫困缓解的实证研究"(13YB143);中南财经政法大学百篇优秀博士学位论文培育项目(2014YB0802)

摘　　要：理论界普遍认为养殖规模化具有缓解畜禽产量波动的作用。基于2000-2012年省际面板数据,运用固定效应和随机效应模型检验并估计养殖规模化对我国生猪产量波动的稳定作用。研究结果表明:规模化水平的提高的确有利于降低生猪出栏量波动幅度,但这种稳定效应存在明显的非对称性,规模化水平每提高10%,将使猪肉价格上行引发的出栏量正向波动显著降低1%,而养殖规模化对负向冲击因素造成的出栏量负向波动抑制作用并不明显。进一步分析表明,总体规模化水平偏低、规模养殖场规模经济效应优势不明显、纵向一体化水平偏低等内部因素和生猪价格剧烈波动、饲料成本上涨和疫病冲击等外部因素共同作用是造成目前养殖规模化无法有效缓解生产负向波动的主要原因。It is generally believed that large-scale livestock production plays an important role in stabilizing livestock production fluctuations in the theoretical cycle. Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2012, this paper employs the fixed effects and random effects models to test and estimate the alleviation effects of large-scale livestock production on pig production fluctuations. The results show that the improvement of production scale can indeed help to reduce the degree of pig slaughter fluctuations. However, this stabilizing effect is clearly unsymmetrical： each time the scale increases by 10%, the positive fluctuations of live pigs for sell resulted from the rising pork prices will decrease by 1%. However, large-scale livestock production has no significant inhibiting effect on the negative fluctuation of live pigs for sell caused by negative impacting factors. Further analysis indicates that the major reason why the present scale of livestock production cannot effectively relieve the negative fluctuations of the product is the combined effect of the internal factors and the external factors. The internal factors are the lower level of overall production scale, the insignificant scale economies effect advantage of the large-scale livestock farms, and the lower level of vertical integration; and the external factors are the extreme volatility of live pig prices, the rising feed costs, the impacts of diseases, and so on.

关 键 词：生猪生产波动 养殖规模化 稳定效应 

分 类 号：F307.3[经济管理—产业经济]