中国未来核电严重事故发生的可能性研究  

Research on the Possibility of Serious Nuclear Accidents Occurred in China in the Future

作　　者：周涛[1] 宋明强[1] 刘亮[1] 琚忠云[1] 李云博 林达平[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学核热工安全和标准化所,北京102206

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2015年第1期95-98,共4页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50976033);华北电力大学校内"211"基金(X10011)

摘　　要：安全是核电发展的重大前提,但是核电发展的短短历史时期内就发生了3次严重事故,第4次事故会不会发生在中国?通过列举历史、法规、技术、文化、制度等方面的因素,说明可以保障中国核电不发生严重事故,但是由于存在法规杂乱、技术青涩以及人因等因素,使得核电存在发生严重事故的可能。应用概率方法,对各国严重事故发生概率进行了计算,发现事故一般都早于计算的预期,核电在中长期内还存在发生严重事故的可能。中国核电应杜绝"大跃进"式发展,统一完善核电法规标准,严格制度和实施过程,选择科学的发展模式,才能保证核电安全。Safety is the major premise of nuclear power development,but severe accidents have happened three times in the history of nuclear power development. Will the fourth severe accident in next decades and will it happen in China？ There are some factors about history,regulation,technology,culture and system that may ensure nuclear power safety in China,but the possibility of severe accidents happened in China is indeed existed because of messy regulations,imperfect technologies and human factors. By calculating the probability of severe accidents happened in the world,severe accidents often happen earlier than expected and the possibility of severe accidents happened is existed in the medium to long term. The ‘Great leap forward＇development style should be prevented in Chinese nuclear power and so nuclear power laws and regulations standards should be completed. The scientific development model should be chosen to guarantee nuclear power safety.

关 键 词：核电 安全 严重事故 可能性 

分 类 号：TM623.8[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]