“热钱”变动及其影响因素  

Changes and Effects of Hot Money

作　　者：方毅[1] 于大力[2] 高莉[3] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心/商学院副教授、博士生导师,长春市130012 [2]南洋理工大学经济系访问学者,新加坡639815 [3]吉林大学商学院硕士研究生

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2015年第3期46-53,共8页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于广义线性函数的随机占优统计推断与证券市场投资者总体偏好”(71371084);国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国潜在经济增长率计算及结构转换路径研究“(12&ZD197);中央高校基本科研业务费专项“适合风险厌恶的随机占优检验与应用”(JCKY-SYJC14)

摘　　要：基于中国"热钱"存在"长线投机资金",本文以影响因素为主线,结合利率、汇率、宏观经济与资本溢价等广泛因素,对"热钱"进行研究。结果表明:"热钱"在次贷危机后出现大幅流出的长期趋势,且短期波动加大;"热钱"同中国经济的作用机制未发生结构转变;"热钱"与多种因素存在多重长期均衡,在长期共同因子中GDP最主要,"热钱"影响超过其他因素;对GDP和房价有显著短期冲击。"热钱"应纳入中国整体经济的流动性管理之中。"热钱"对流动性的冲击,"热钱"与经济增长正反馈形成的风险,应纳入宏观经济政策考虑的内容。This paper researches＂ hot money＂ in China by taking the extensive influencing factors as the main line, which involves interest rate ,exchange rate ,macroeconomic ,capital premium,and so on, in view of the＂ long-term speculative funds＂. The findings indicate that there is a substantial outflow of ＂hot money＂ in the long-term and an increasing short-term volatility in the short-term after the subprime mortgage crisis. The mechanism between China＇ s economy and ＂hot money＂ does not show a structural change. There is a multiple long-term equilibrium among ＂hot money＂ and exten- sive factors. Moreover, GDP is the main effective variable, and the effect of ＂hot money＂ is beyond other factors. In short term,＂ hot money＂ impacts GDP and house price significantly. ＂Hot money＂ should be considered in liquidity management of China＇ s economy. The influence of ＂hot money＂ on liquidity and the risk resulting from positive feedback between ＂hot money＂ and economic growth should be taken into account by making macroeconomic policies.

关 键 词：热钱 长期投机 短期投机 长期共同因子 流动性管理 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]