就业结构变动与经济波动的关系研究——基于VAR模型的定量分析  

The Research of Fluctuation Relationship between Employment Structure and Economy Fluctuation:The Quantitative Analysis Based on the VAR Model

作　　者：黄夏[1] 李健[1] 卫平[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《生态经济》2015年第2期96-101,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"战略性新兴产业发展研究"(10JZD0017)

摘　　要：利用1952~2011年中国三次产业就业与生产总值数据,分别采用Moore指数和HP滤波方法测量就业结构变动和经济波动,在此基础上构建VAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数法和方差分解方法对中国就业结构变动和经济波动之间的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明,就业结构变动对经济波动的贡献较大,而经济波动对就业结构影响相对较弱。在实证分析结果基础上,提出政策建议来降低就业结构大幅度变动给经济带来的负面影响。This paper analyzes the quantitative relationship between the structural change of economy and economic fluctuation based on employment structure of three industries. Through the measurement of the change value of the employment structure in the three industries and Chinese economic fluctuation, the paper constructs the VAR model, and carries on the estimation and Granger causality test, and comprehensively makes use of the analysis of variance and impulse response function to analyze the relationship between structural change of three industries＇ employment and Chinese economic fluctuation from 1952 to 2011.The results of the paper show that the structural change of the three industries＇ employment is the important reason for the economic fluctuation, while the latter has no effect on the employment structure.

关 键 词：就业结构 经济波动 VAR模型 脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]