节粮型畜牧业发展一定有益于粮食安全吗?——基于省域面板数据的实证分析  被引量:2

Is Grain Saving Animal Husbandry Development Mode Certainly Benefi cial to Food Security? The Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

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作  者:张兴[1] 张炜[1] 

机构地区:[1]西北农林科技大学经管学院,陕西杨凌712100

出  处:《生态经济》2015年第2期113-116,共4页Ecological Economy

基  金:国家自然科学基金(71403214);教育部人文社会科学研究西部和边疆地区项目(14XJC790013);陕西省人才专项配套基金

摘  要:当前,主要基于对粮食安全的考虑提出节粮型畜牧业发展模式,但是该政策是否奏效呢?节粮型畜牧业发展在节约粮食的同时也可能带来粮食产量的大幅下降,结果反而危及粮食安全。因此,只有在畜牧业发展方式转变过程中保证粮食产量不下降或基本稳定才能使节粮型畜牧业发展对粮食安全产生积极影响。通过选取耗粮型畜产品产量比重、畜产品需求价格弹性以及其他可能影响粮食安全水平的指标,对该问题进行理论与实证研究。结果表明,畜产品需求弹性与粮食安全水平负相关,而耗粮型畜产品产量比重提高有利于粮食安全;另外,城镇化水平、农业技术水平、农作物播种面积以及农业基础设施状况等控制变量均通过检验且显著为正。Currently, mainly based on food safety concerns researchers proposed the development model of grain-saving livestock, but does the policy work? Saving food livestock development in the conservation of food at the same time may also bring substantial decline in food production, and hence the result will endanger food security. So, there may be paradox between the development mode of grain saving animal husbandry and food security. This paper first analyzes the inner connection of the two and then selects the proportion of consumption of grain-based livestock production, the price elasticity of demand for livestock products and other potentially affect the level of food security indicators so as to analyze the problem theoretically and empirically. The results show that the elasticity of demand for livestock products and food security negatively correlated, while the proportion of consumption' of grain-based livestock production to improve food security in favor; additionally, the level of urbanization, agricultural technology, crop acreage and agricultural infrastructure conditions and other control variables are positive and significant.

关 键 词:节粮型畜牧业 粮食安全 畜产品需求弹性 耗粮型畜产品比重 

分 类 号:F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]

 

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