浙江省年平均气温百年序列的构建  

Construction of the 100-year Series of Annual Mean Air Temperature over Zhejiang Province

作　　者：李正泉[1] 张青[2] 马浩[1] 肖晶晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省气候中心,杭州310017 [2]浙江省气象服务中心,杭州310017

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2014年第4期17-24,共8页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306050);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201327)资助

摘　　要：长时间气温序列是气候变化研究的基础，早期气温观测台站的缺乏在某种程度上限制了区域性气温长序列的建立。将局部台站的气温观测值向代表全区水平的气温观测值转化，亦是一种有效利用早期少数气温站点构建区域性气温长序列的重要途径。基于浙江省气温观测台站资料的统计分析，提出了局部台站观测值全局修正（GAoSV）的气温长序列建立方式，并利用该方式构建了浙江省年平均气温百年序列。研究结果表明：省级区域内气温局部台站观测与全区台站观测，两者的气温年值变化具有高度的趋同相关性，所提出的GAoSV气温序列构建方式可在少数气温观测台站的情况下，有效保证全区气温序列的构建可信度，且随着观测台站数量增多，其构建可信度会进一步增大，该方式尤其适合早期气温观测台站稀缺（仅有1～2个）的省市级气温长序列的建立。以GAoSV方式建立的浙江省年平均气温百年序列显示，1905-2012年浙江省年平均气温总体在逐渐升高，增温速率约为0．11℃／10a，1980-2012年期间气温的上升趋势更为明显，增温速率约为0．51℃／10a。Long-term temperature series is a fundamental element for climate change research. In early years, lack of temperature stations limited the establishment of a long-term series of regional temper- ature. To effectively use seldom stations data to construct long-term series of regional temperature, it is an important approach to transform the temperature value from local observing level to global observing level. Based on the statistical analysis of temperature data of weather stations in Zhejiang province, this paper had put forward a new approach named GAoSV method for constructing long-term series of regional tem- perature, and established the 100-year temperature series over Zhejiang province. The results indicate that annual temperatures have a close homogeneous relationship between local stations observing and glob- al stations observing in provincial extent. It follows that the GAoSV method has a good capability of guar- anteeing the reliability of temperature series even if the series is constructed by only using a few tempera- ture stations. Moreover, the more stations are added, the more reliability the temperature series has. The GAoSV method is suitable to establishing provincial or municipal long-term temperature series, especially for the regions where early temperature stations are very rare （e. g. one or two）. The 100-year tempera- ture series of Zhejiang province shows that the annual temperature has a general increasing trend with an approximate 0.11 ℃/10a increment and the increasing trend is more obvious in the period ranging 1950 to 2012, meanwhile the temperature increment is approximate 0.51 ℃/10a.

关 键 词：气温 百年序列 全局修正 气候变化 浙江 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]