国际粮价波动对粮食贸易政策的影响研究  

The Influence of International Food Price Fluctuation on Food Trade Policy

作　　者：尹靖华[1] 顾国达[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2015年第2期19-27,共9页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(09BJY072)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：近十年来我国粮食净进口量逐渐增加，粮食安全对贸易途径的倚重程度不断加大，但近年来国际粮食价格危机引发的多个国家贸易隔离程度加剧，对我国的粮食安全是一个重大挑战。文章在KymAnderson等（2013）模型的基础上剖析了国际粮食价格波动对贸易政策的影响机理，运用固定效应面板模型估计了国际粮食价格波动对中国及其主要粮食贸易伙伴国贸易政策的影响效应。结果表明，1992-2011年间，国际小麦、稻米和玉米价格波动程度增大1％，分别引起贸易隔离程度增大1．64％、1．60％及0．45％；与饲料粮相比口粮的国际价格波动引起更大的贸易隔离。因此．应从国内、区域和全球层面采取相应措施。In the past decade, China＇s net food imports increase gradually, and China＇s food security has relied more on international trade. However, the recent international food crisis has triggered many countries＇ trade isolation, which means a big challenge for China＇s food safety. Based on Kym Anderson （2013） model, the paper analyzes the influence mechanism of international grain price volatility on the trade policy, and estimates the influence effects by fixed effect panel model. The result shows that from 1992 to 2011, the price volatility of international wheat, rice and corn increases 1%, causing the level of trade isolation to increase 1.64%, 1.60% and 0.45% respectively. Compared with the feed, the international food price volatility leads to a greater level of trade isolation. Therefore, China should take corresponding measures.

关 键 词：粮食安全 价格波动 粮食贸易政策 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]