基于Z指数的昆明市洪涝研究  

Research of Flooding based on Z Index in Kunming City

作　　者：何萍[1] 白洪强 李矜霄[3,4] 杨云源[1] 杨和艳 

机构地区：[1]云南楚雄师范学院地理科学与旅游管理学院,云南楚雄675000 [2]云南蓝晶科技股份有限公司,云南玉溪653100 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京100029 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100029 [5]云南临沧市气象局,云南临沧677000

出　　处：《地球与环境》2015年第1期71-79,共9页Earth and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区基金项目(41465001;40965002);云南省自然科学基金资助项目(2005D0077M2)

摘　　要：本文基于昆明市12个气象站点1963~2013年逐月降水量数据,采用Z指数的方法,得到旱涝等级评定结果,对昆明市洪涝的时空分布特征及成因进行了深入分析与研究,在此基础上提出防洪减灾对策。研究结果表明：时间分布上,昆明市在1963~2013年间,降水量经历了上升-下降-上升-下降的波动状态,51年内共出现了8次重涝,3次大涝,10次偏涝,洪涝类型以重涝和偏涝为主,洪涝主要集中出分布在60年代中期至70年代中期、80年代末至21世纪初。空间分布上,昆明市的主城区昆明及其下风方向的嵩明地区降水较多,洪涝程度最为严重,呈贡、东川地区的降水较少,洪涝程度最轻。影响因素上,影响降水量最大的自然因素是相对湿度,其次是蒸发量及总云量;最大的人为因素是城市人口,其次是SO2排放量、建成区面积及道路面积。In this paper,12 weather stations in Kunming monthly precipitation data based on 1963-2013,using Z index method,get the grade of drought and flood evaluation results,the distribution and causes of flood in Kunming are analyzed and studied deeply,based on the flood control and disaster mitigation measures.Research results show that：the distribution of time,the city of Kunming in the period of 1963-2013,precipitation experienced fluctuations increase decrease increase decrease the irregular,51 years there were 8heavy floods,3big floods,10 flood,flood type to heavy floods and flood,the flood mainly distributed in the mid 60’s to the mid 70’s,the late 80’s to the early twenty-first Century.The spatial distribution of precipitation in Songming area,Kunming city in the urban area of Kunming and under the direction of the wind,flooding most serious degree,less precipitation in Chenggong,Dongchuan area,the flood was the lightest.Influence factors,natural factors affecting precipitation is the largest relative humidity,followed by evaporation and total cloudiness;human factors is the largest city in population,followed by SO2 emissions,built-up area and road area.

关 键 词：昆明市 Z指数 降水量 洪涝 时空分布特征 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]