美元本位、美国经济虚拟化与国际资本流动:对当今全球经济失衡的新解释  

Dollar Standard,America's Fictitious Economy Development and International Capital Flows: A New Explanation for Global Imbalance

作　　者：胡晓[1] 过新伟 

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学商学院,湘潭411201 [2]广发银行,广州510080

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2015年第1期77-86,91,共11页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：湖南省社科基金一般项目"全球经济再平衡期湖南开放型经济发展的新动力及模式研究"(项目编号:13YBA141);湖南省教育厅科学研究项目"结构视角下的我国经济外部不平衡及治理研究"(项目编号:13C285)

摘　　要：笔者从当代国际资本流动与商品流动之间关系的角度探讨了全球经济失衡的本质,指出当今全球经济失衡本质上是国际资本持续流入美国;在此基础上从美元本位下的美国经济虚拟化视角,建立世界资产市场均衡模型,研究了国际资本持续流入美国的机制;建立了计量模型,进行了实证分析,结果支持理论模型的结论,并发现美国经济增长率、利率、汇率等因素对当今国际资本流动没有影响;最后概述了美国经济虚拟化的机制。本文的研究结论深化了对全球经济失衡的认识,有助于理解虚拟经济在当代经济中的重要性,它的主要政策含义是,解决全球经济失衡问题的关键是控制美国虚拟经济过度发展,推进国际货币体系改革、建立全球金融监管体系和新兴市场经济体、合理引导外部资本流入等措施有助于该问题的解决。Based on the analysis on the relationship, between the contemporary international capital flow and International commodity flow, this paper argued that the essence of the global imbalance is the internation- al capital continued flowing into,the U. S. Then, from the perspective of America＇s fictitious economy d.evelop- ment under dollar standard, the paper established a world assets equilibrium model to analyze the mechanism that t international capital flows into America. And further the paper made an empirical test for the conclusion of tha madel the results are consistent with the conclusion of the model and also found that the America＇s eco- nomio growth interest rate, exchange rate have no effectson the international capital flow. Finally, the paper summarized the mechanism of the continued development of U. S. fictitious economy. The conclusions of this. paper not only deepened the understanding the current global imbalance, but also contributed to understanding the importance of fictitious economy in contemporary economy, and have important implications ： the key way to solve the problem of the global imbalance is to control the excessive development of the U. S fictitious eco- nomy, to promote the reform of the international money system, to establish a global unified financial supervi- sion system and to guide external capital to flow into the emerging market economies can help to address the problem.

关 键 词：美元本位 经济虚拟化 国际资本流动 全球失衡 

分 类 号：F11-0[经济管理—国际贸易]