社会保障对生育意愿的影响:来自新型农村合作医疗的证据  

The Impact of Social Security on Fertility Desire:Evidence from the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme

作　　者：王天宇[1] 彭晓博[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院 [2]中国社会科学院研究生院 [3]中国社会科学院经济研究所

出　　处：《经济研究》2015年第2期103-117,共15页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：北京大学才斋奖学金的资助;国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD042);国家社科基金项目(14BGL145)的资助

摘　　要：社会保障制度对个体生育决策和总和生育率的深远影响早已被大量研究所证实,但由于人口政策对生育行为的限制,鲜有文献对中国情境进行探讨。本文考察了新型农村合作医疗制度的建立对居民生育意愿的影响。基于两期家庭决策模型的分析表明,带有补贴的新农合会对生育数量产生两种方向相反的效应:收入效应和挤出效应,前者导致生育意愿的提高,后者导致生育意愿的下降。利用中国健康与营养调查(China Health and Nutrition Survey,CHNS)2000-2009年的数据,本文发现挤出效应占主导地位,参加新农合使居民想再要孩子的意愿降低了3%一10%。据此,本文认为社会保障体系建设的持续推进将为放松人口政策提供空间,实现从强制少生到自愿适度生育的转变。It has been demonstrated by a great deal of research that social security has profound influence on individual fertility decision and total fertility rate. However, relevant study about China is still rare due to the limitation（distortion）of one-child policy on fertility behavior. In this paper, we investigate the effect of the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme （NCMS） on fertility desire of China＇s rural residents. Based on two-period family decision model, we find that the NCMS with subsidy from government has both income effect and crowd-out effect. The former increases the fertility desire while the latter depresses it. Armed with the 2000-2009 longitudinal data from China Health and Nutrition Survey（ CHNS）, we find that the crowd-out effect outweighed the income effect. That is, enrolling in the NCMS makes the fertility desire of women at child bearing age decrease by 3%-10%. Supported by both theoretical and empirical evidence, we think the establishment and popularization of health insurance can provide some opportunity for the relaxation of the one-child policy.

关 键 词：社会保障 生育意愿 计划生育 新型农村合作医疗 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理] F842.684[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学] F323.89