工业用水与工业经济增长、产业结构变化的关系  

Relationship Between the Industrial Water Usage and the Industrial Economic Growth and the Industrial Structural Change

作　　者：张兵兵[1] 沈满洪[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,浙江杭州310012 [2]宁波大学商学院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2015年第2期9-14,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目"我国工业节水战略研究"(编号:12AJY003)

摘　　要：工业水资源节约是节水工作中的重点领域。因此,了解工业水资源利用与工业经济增长的关系以及产业结构变化对工业水资源节约的影响具有重大的意义。考虑到中国区域间工业用水的差异性,在对中国31个省份1998-2012年的面板数据进行面板单位根检验以及面板协整检验的基础上,构建面板协整方程及其误差修正模型,并检验工业水资源利用与工业经济增长、产业结构变化之间因果关系,结果显示:工业水资源利用与工业经济增长、产业结构变化之间存在着长期均衡关系,并且这种长期均衡关系对短期变化具有促进作用;在其他条件不变的情况下,工业经济增长1%时,工业用水量增加0.04%,而在其他条件不变的情况下,工业比重增加1%时,工业用水量增加0.57%,即在其他条件不变的情况下,产业结构变化相较于工业经济增长给工业水资源利用带来的影响更加明显;工业水资源利用与工业经济增长以及工业水资源利用与产业结构变化之间均存在双向的因果关系。基于以上结果可以得知,水资源短缺的确会成为工业经济增长的制约因素,为保障工业经济的可持续发展,节约工业水资源的利用亟需落到实处。而产业结构调整是节约工业水资源的有效措施,所以在保障工业经济增长的同时,适当调整产业内部结构,使工业结构比重下降,从而得到工业水资源利用的节约。Industrial water saving is an important part of the work of water saving, therefore, it is necessary to realize the relationship between the industrial water usage and the industrial economic growth and the influence which is brought by the industrial structural change to the industrial water saving. Taking the discrepancy between regions in industrial water usage in China into account, we build the panel co-integration equation and the error correction model after doing the unit root test and the co-integration test using the panel data of 31 provinces in China from the year of 1998 to 2012. Then we test the Granger causality of the variables and get the conclusion as follows ： firstly, there is a long-term and stable relation between the industrial water usage and the industrial economic growth and the industrial structural change, and the long-term stable relation improves the short-term change of the variables; secondly, with other factors invariant, when the industrial economy increases 1% , the industrial water usage increases 0.04% , but when the industrial rate increases 1% , the industrial water usage increases 0.57% , which indicates that the influence of industrial structural change is more effective than industrial economic growth on industrial water saving; finally, there is a bidirectional causality between the industrial water usage and the industrial economic increase and the industrial structural change. According to the results, we can get the conclusion that water shortage can actually be the restriction of the industrial economic increase but industrial structural adjustment can be an effective method to save industrial water. Therefore, we should adjust the industrial structure properly to decrease the industrial rate and we can get the saving of the industrial water.

关 键 词：工业水资源 工业经济 产业结构 面板协整 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]