投资发展周期:新兴市场国家的检验与拓展  

Investment Development Cycle:An Empirical Test and Extension on the Basis of Emerging Market Countries

作　　者：陈建勋[1] 翟春晓[2] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院国际投资研究室 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2015年第2期87-96,共10页Finance & Trade Economics

摘　　要：新兴市场国家的国际直接投资在世界经济中发挥着越来越重要的作用,但是针对新兴市场国家投资发展周期的研究成果却相对较少。本文重新思考传统投资发展周期理论的假设前提,尝试检验新兴市场国家投资发展周期的独特性。运用13个新兴市场国家1993—2012年的数据,本文发现:新兴市场国家在整体上处于投资发展周期的前三阶段。但是,在发展态势上,随着经济发展水平的提高,新兴市场国家对外投资和吸引外资都呈现出先下降后上升的U型态势,而净对外投资额则表现出先上升后下降的倒U型态势;在发展阶段上,这些国家在投资发展周期的前三阶段其对外投资都超前于经济发展水平,这与传统投资发展周期理论所揭示的并不相同,本文尝试对此进行了理论解释。最后,根据研究结论,本文提出了相应的政策建议和未来研究方向。Foreign direct investment in emerging market countries is playing an increasingly important role in the world economy. However, research focusing on the investment development path of emerging markets is relatively rare. This paper challenges the investment development cycle theory, and adopts the emerging market countries samples to validate and expand the investment development cycle. Using 13 emerging market countries data from 1993 to 2012, this paper finds that emerging market countries are in the first three stages of the investment development cycle. Nevertheless, with regard to development trend, the inward and outward FDI in emerging market countries shows a U-shaped relationship while the net FDI shows an inverted U-shaped relationship. In the first three stages of investment development cycle, foreign investment of emerging market countries proceeds is ahead of their economic development level, which is different from what traditional theory of investment development cycle has revealed. This paper tries to make theoretical explanation. Finally, based on the research conclusion of this paper, we put forward relative policy suggestions and future research direction.

关 键 词：新兴市场国家 投资发展周期理论 国际直接投资 人均GNP 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]