基于全球均衡市场的中国人造板产业动态演化  

The Dynamic Evolution of China's Wood-based Panels Industry Based on Global Equilibrium

作　　者：张小标 杨红强[1,3,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037 [2]国家林业局林产品经济贸易研究中心,南京210037 [3]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心,南京210093

出　　处：《林业经济》2015年第1期62-69,74,共9页Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“应对气候变化的中国林业国家碳库构建与预警机制研究”(编号:14AJY014);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“IPCC气候框架下中国林产品国际贸易的碳流动问题研究”(编号:13YJAZH114);江苏省高校“青蓝工程”中青年学术带头人项目(编号:2012-12#)

摘　　要：从全球均衡市场角度，使用GFPM模型对2010-2030年中国人造板演化趋势进行动态模拟，通过引入GFPM约束的GDP增速、森林面积和森林蓄积量三个宏观经济外生变量，从产量、消费和进出口三个方面对中国人造板产业的发展趋势进行论述。研究表明：①中低速增长的“新常态”宏观环境将降低对传统GDP增长的追逐，人造板产业同样将出现增速放缓的走势；②就人造板产业结构来看，传统原材料和劳动力密集的胶合板比重将下降，资本和技术密集度相对较高的刨花板比重将得以提高；③中国人造板的传统比较优势可能会出现较大下滑，贸易顺差不断收紧，内需驱动将成为人造板产业发展的主要影响因素；④人造板产业尤其是胶合板产业这种对资源和劳动力的高消耗且低附加值的产业转型与升级变得尤为紧迫，加快低附加值部分的国际转移应成为产业战略调整的重要思路。From the perspective of global equilibrium market, the GFPM （Global Forest Products Model） model is used in this research to finish dynamic simulation for the evolution trend of wood-based panel industry in China from 2010 to 2030. By introducing three macroeconomic exogenous variables of GDP growth, forest area and for- est stock, we discuss the development trend of wood-based panel industry in China from the aspects of production, consumption and import and export. Research results show that： （1） The slow growth of the new normal macro- environment will reduce the pursuit of traditional GDP growth, China＇s wood-based panel industry will also show slowdown trend; （2） The industrial structure of wood-based panel industry, the proportion of the traditional industry of plywood with material and labor intensive characterize will decline, otherwise, the proportion of particle- board industry with capital and technology density will be improved; （3） The traditional comparative advantage of Chinese wood-based panel industry may appear large decline with the trade surplus tightening, domestic demand will become the main influencing factors of wood-based panel industry development; （4） The wood-based panel industry especially the plywood industry with high consumption of resources and labor and low value- added has become especially urgent in industrial transformation and upgrading. To speed up the international transfer of the low value-added part should become an important train of the industrial strategic adjustment.

关 键 词：全球均衡市场 人造板产业 GFPM模型 动态演化 

分 类 号：F426.88[经济管理—产业经济]