基于洛特卡定律的国际社会化媒体研究成熟度分析  

Analysis on Maturity of International Social Media Based on Lotka's Law

作　　者：张敏[1] 朱明星[1] 沈雪乐[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学信息资源研究中心,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2015年第1期95-99,共5页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金项目<不确定性需求环境下信息服务质量管理机制与测评模型研究>(09yjc870022);国家自然科学基金项目(71203166)

摘　　要：移动智能终端的不断升级和各种互联网技术的融合发展给社会化媒体产业带来了巨大的增长空间,近年来社会化媒体研究也随之成为最具增长力的学科领域之一。经典洛特卡定律能揭示特定研究领域作者数与所著科学文献数之间的规律,常被用来评判特定研究领域的发展成熟度,但存在精度不够等问题。在经典洛特卡定律的基础上,结合国际社会化媒体研究领域最新发展,拟合出该领域洛特卡定律常数的非线性回归方法来提高计算精度:以1994—2013年间ISI Web of Science数据库中社会化媒体相关主题的8 021篇文献为研究样本(SSCI数据库文献4 501篇,SCI数据库的文献4 279篇)展开研究,并进行K-S一致性检验。统计分析结果表明:国际社会化媒体领域的研究虽处于快速发展阶段,但成熟度不高,核心作者群尚未达到稳定状态。The continuous updating of mobile intelligent devices and combination development of internet technologies produce tremendous development space for social media industry . Social media research has become one of the most competitive fields .The Lotka＇s law reveals the law of relationships between the number of authors and the number of their research literatures in the specific research field and it is usually used to evaluate the maturity of the specific research field .But its accuracy is not enough . In this paper ,we develop classic Lotka＇s law by combining with the newly application of social media to obtain the non‐linear regression equation to increase computation accuracy and choose 8021 literatures about social media in SSCI /SCI database from ISI Web of Science information platform during the time span of 1994‐2013 as research objects .T hen K‐S consistency test is carried out .T he statistic results show that international social media research is in a quickly developing status .Research maturity is not enough and has not formed core author group .

关 键 词：洛特卡定律 社会化媒体 成熟度 回归分析 

分 类 号：G219[文化科学—新闻学]