项目进度绩效指标的改进及其动态性预测  

The Development of Project Performance Index and Dynamic Prediction

作　　者：杨小平[1] 郝娟娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学管理学院,合肥230026

出　　处：《价值工程》2015年第9期12-15,共4页Value Engineering

摘　　要：传统的挣值方法中,进度指标的预测多表现单期、静态的特性,存在严重的局限性。为了改进和完善挣值管理方法中进度指标体系,在考虑时间序列的基础上,将统计方法引入挣值管理进度指标体系中,用更加科学的方法对项目进度指标进行描述,并在此基础上基于贝叶斯推断方法,加入专家意见,从统计学的角度提出了进度绩效指数的动态预测模型,因而,可以为项目管理者提供科学的据侧依据。In the traditional earned value management method, the forecasting of the project schedule index has the limitations, such as single stage, static characteristics. In order to improve the method of earned value management progress index system, the time sequence has been considered, and also, the statistical method is introduced into earned value management progress index system, so the project schedule index can be described with a more scientific method. Based on all above and also considering the expert opinions, A Bayesian model has been developed. At last, A Dynamic Forecasting model of schedule performance index, from the perspective of statistical, is proposed.

关 键 词：挣值管理(EVM) 进度挣得(ES) 进度指标 贝叶斯方法 动态预测 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]