气候变暖背景下南海夏季风建立和结束日期及与其强度的关系  

DEFINITION OF ONSET AND RETREAT DATE OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON AND THE RELATION WITH ITS STRENGTH UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF CLIMATE WARMING

作　　者：张莉萍[1] 李栋梁[1] 李潇[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2014年第6期1037-1047,共11页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2013CB430202);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助课题(博导类)(20113228110003)共同资助

摘　　要：利用1948—2012年NCEP/NCAR再分析全球格点日平均资料,将南海区域（110-120°E,10-20°N）850 h Pa候平均纬向风稳定地由东（西）风转为西（东）风,且同一层上稳定地有θse≥335 K（θse〈335 K）确定为南海夏季风建立（结束）日期,得到近65 a南海夏季风建立、结束、持续日期序列。赤道印度洋地区的顺时针旋转的涡旋与越赤道气流及副高对南海夏季风的爆发起着决定性作用。南海夏季风建立日期与其强度的关系密切,夏季风建立越晚（早）其强度越强（弱）,纬向风在对流层高层先（后）发生突变。气候变暖对南海夏季风的建立和结束日期及强度的影响是显著的,气候变暖后南海夏季风建立早（晚）年明显偏多（少）,强度明显偏弱。Using the 1948-2012 NCEP/NCAR global grid daily average data, SCSSM onset dates （retreating dates） are determined to be at the pentad when the average zonal wind, which is from sequences of onset and retreat dates for nearly 65 years, steadily changes from east to west （west to east） and the pseudo-equivalent temperature is steadily within θse〉335 K （θse〈335 K） at 850 hPa in a key zone of the South China Sea （110-120°E, 10 -20°N）. Analysis shows that the clockwise vortex of the equatorial Indian Ocean region has similar guided influence on the cross-equatorial flow and the subtropical anticyclone on the outbreak （retreat） of the SCSSM. The onset date of the SCSSM is closely related to its intensity, and with late （early） onset of the summer monsoon, its intensity is strong （weak）, and the abrupt change of zonal wind is early （late） in the upper troposphere. Climate warming has an important influence on SCSSM; with the onset date earlier, the retreat date will be later and the intensity will be weaker.

关 键 词：气候变暖 南海夏季风 建立和结束日期 越赤道气流 

分 类 号：P425.42[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]