区域模式参考大气扰动量算法的预报试验  

THE FORECASTING EXPERIMENT WITH A REFERENCE ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE ALGORITHM OF GUANGDONG REGIONAL MODEL

作　　者：杨兆礼[1] 陈子通[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广东广州510080

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2014年第6期1107-1112,共6页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：广东科技计划项目(2011A032100006;2012A061400012);十二五科技计划(2012BAC22B00);公益性行业专项(GYHY201206010;GYHY201406009);广东省气象局项目(2013A04)共同资助

摘　　要：引进参考大气方法以降低垂直运动方程中的量级差,并设计了位温直接计算法、气压直接计算法和混合算法三种不同方案来改进预报效果。结果表明,这三种不同方案对500 h Pa位势高度和温度的垂直分布的预报有较大影响,其中,混合算法的温度分布预报结果与NCEP分析场最接近。在三种方案的预报效果评估检验中,混合算法对风速、位势高度(hv)、降水量和2 m温度(T2m)的预报效果最好。在三种方案中,平均初始温度场的参考大气廓线的预报效果要优于等温参考大气廓线;在不同的参考大气状态下,混合算法在风速、位势高度、降水量和2 m温度的预报效果最好。The method of reference atmosphere is introduced to reduce the order of magnitude of the difference between vertical motion equations and to improve the forecast, and three different methods, computed either with temperature directly or pressure directly or with a mixture algorithm, were designed. It was found that different schemes have a large effect on the forecast of 500 hPa geopotential height and vertical distribution of temperature. Besides, for all these methods, the forecast of the distribution of temperature with the mixture algorithm is the closest to that of the NCEP analysis filed. Moreover, the forecast was verified to find that the mixture algorithm performs the best in the forecast of wind, geopotential height, rain and temperature at 2-m height. Lastly, it was also found that among the three different schemes, the forecast profiles of the reference atmosphere for mean initial temperature field is better than that of the static reference atmosphere, and for different state of the reference atmosphere, the mixture algorithm is the best in forecasting the wind, geopotential height, rain and temperature at 2-m height, regardless of the scheme.

关 键 词：动力气象学 区域模式 参考大气 扰动量 预报试验 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]